Every dated market call — the Dow and equities, Bitcoin, and oil — scored against what actually happened, with a source link on every row. Public sources only. No affiliation.
Last updated: July 17, 2026 · 26 tracked calls
Independent tracker · Not affiliated with Armstrong Economics · Not financial advice
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Positions are calendar arithmetic from Armstrong’s published 8.6-year constant (3,141 days ≈ π×1000) and the interval series in his 1999 essay — model math, not forecasts, and not an endorsement of the model.
| Made | Prediction & outcome | Verdict | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | October 1987 crash — Economic Confidence Model turning point at 1987.8. The crash happened (Black Monday, Oct 19, 1987). The call is attributed to Armstrong by himself and clients; no contemporaneous public document verifies it independently. | ✔ HitReported (secondhand) | MoneyWeek |
| 1989 | Collapse of the Japanese Nikkei. The Nikkei peaked Dec 1989 and entered a multi-decade decline. Attribution rests on later reporting, not a contemporaneous public document. | ✔ HitReported (secondhand) | MoneyWeek |
| ≤1996 | Dow 6,000 by cycle target 1996.4. The Dow crossed 6,000 in October 1996. The claim is documented in his own 1999 essay after the fact, not in a contemporaneous public record. | ✔ HitSelf-reported (retrospective) | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| ≤1998 | Dow 10,000 for 1998. The 1998 high was roughly 9,400; the Dow first closed above 10,000 in March 1999 — months past the stated year. | ◐ PartialSelf-reported (retrospective) | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| 1998 | ECM peak at 1998.55 (July 20, 1998) — top in market liquidity and volume, with Russia’s troubles hitting Western markets. US equities peaked July 17–20, 1998, then fell sharply as Russia defaulted and Long-Term Capital Management imploded. Caveat: his contemporaneous Financial Times quote (June 27, 1998) warned Russia would damage Europe; "predicted the collapse itself" is his later retelling. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| 1999 | Business-cycle decline running into ECM 2002.85 (November 8, 2002). The dot-com bear market bottomed October 9, 2002 — about four weeks before the model date. His accompanying scenario ("a high in 2002/2003... may be followed by a crash") was hedged and didn’t play out; the dated part nearly did. | ◐ Partial | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| 1999 | "Periods of economic strife will begin to grow in intensity... moving into 2007.15" (Feb 26–27, 2007). February 27, 2007 brought the sharp global selloff (the Shanghai-triggered correction) that opened the pre-crisis jitters; MoneyWeek reported he called the turn "to the very date." The 2007.15 date was published on his own site in 1999 — in advance. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| 2007 | Bullish 2008: market rebound, housing recovery, oil above $100, gold over $2,000. Oil did cross $100 in early 2008 (component hit). But 2008 brought the global financial crisis — equities collapsed, housing worsened, and gold didn’t reach $2,000 until 2020. | ✖ MissOne component (oil) correct | MoneyWeek |
| 2007 | "Next major slump" beginning June 18, 2011. A major slump did occur in 2011 — but in August (US downgrade / debt-ceiling crisis), not on the named June date. | ◐ PartialRight year, wrong date | MoneyWeek |
| Dec 2008 | DJIA to bottom near 4,000, with the low arriving April–June 2009. The bear-market low was 6,440 on March 9, 2009 — roughly 2,440 points above the target and earlier than the stated window. | ✖ Miss | CXO Advisory |
| May 2009 | New DJIA low in September–October 2009. No low occurred in that window; the market kept rallying. | ✖ Miss | CXO Advisory |
| Aug 2009 | Rally into January 2010, then a major low mid-2011 and a major high late 2015. CXO graded the short-term rally call "essentially correct"; the mid-2011 low loosely rhymes with the Aug 2011 selloff, while "major high late 2015" did not mark a cycle top. | ◐ Partial | CXO Advisory |
| Oct 2015 | Armstrong forecast in a public Aug 14, 2009 research note ("Will the Dow Reach 30,000 by 2015?") that the Dow would rise to roughly 30,000 "going into October 1st, 2015," tied to his Economic Confidence Model's 2015.75 cycle peak; the call was recapped by Seeking Alpha in 2013. The Dow closed 2015 at 17,425.03 (Dec 31, 2015), about 42% below the 30,000 target and far from the "going into October 1, 2015" timing Armstrong specified. The index did not reach 30,000 until November 2020, more than five years after his stated window. | ✖ MissTiming near-miss | "Will the Dow Reach 30,000 by 2015?" - Martin A. Armstrong, Aug 14, 2009 (public research note, reproduced on Yumpu; copyright Martin A. Armstrong) |
| 2017 | Armstrong Economics' July 14, 2017 blog post reiterated 2011-era Dow price targets of 18,500, 23,000, and 40,000, stating a minimum TIME objective of 2016/2017, with further time targets in 2020 and 2022 "setting up for a major vertical move." The Dow closed above 23,000 for the first time on October 18, 2017 (23,157.60), matching the stated 2016/2017 window. It did not reach 40,000 within the 2020-2022 window, however; the Dow closed 2022 at 33,147.25 and did not cross 40,000 until May 2024, roughly two years after the stated time target. | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics - "The Dow & The Future" (July 14, 2017) |
| Nov 24/25, 2017 | Armstrong forecast that the ECM turning point of November 24/25, 2017 (2017.9) would produce a temporary high in the stock market. The Dow did not top out in late November 2017; it kept climbing through the ECM date and set a new record close of 26,616.71 on January 26, 2018, before the February 2018 correction began. | ✖ MissTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics - "The ECM Turning Point Here In November" (Nov 8, 2017) |
| Dec 2017 | Armstrong's Socrates system flagged Bitcoin's Dec 2017 high, with his Dec 22, 2017 blog post noting bearish trend/momentum models pointing to a retest of support after the ~$19,700 peak. Bitcoin peaked near $19,700 around Dec 17, 2017, then fell below $10,000 by mid-to-late January 2018 and to roughly $6,000 by early February 2018, confirming the further-decline call. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics — "BitCoin Crash" (Dec 22, 2017) |
| 2021 | Armstrong predicted the Dow Jones Industrial Average would reach at least 35,000 by 2021, driven by capital flight from struggling foreign markets into US equities. The Dow closed 2021 at 36,338.30 on December 31, 2021, exceeding the 35,000 target within the stated window. | ✔ Hit | Peak Prosperity interview with Martin Armstrong, "Martin Armstrong: Dow 35,000 By 2021?" (published July 16, 2019) |
| Jan 2020 | Following the January 18, 2020 ECM turning point and coronavirus news, Armstrong said markets would see choppiness until April 2020 with a general turning point around May 2020. Markets instead crashed sharply between February 20 and March 23, 2020, with the S&P 500 falling roughly 34% to its low, then began a rapid V-shaped rally well before May 2020 — not the choppy-then-May-turn pattern described. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics - "Coronavirus & The ECM" (Jan 30, 2020) |
| Dec 2020 | In a Dec 2, 2020 forecast-array analysis, Armstrong called Bitcoin's turning point for November 2020, said volatility would rise in December, and forecast it would "scale into a Panic Cycle by next June" (June 2021). Bitcoin rallied from roughly $19,000 in November 2020 to an all-time high of $64,895 on April 14, 2021, then crashed to a five-month low near $28,600-$28,800 on June 22, 2021 -- a decline of about 56%, arriving within the stated "by next June" window. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics -- "Analyzing Bitcoin" (Dec 2, 2020) |
| 2022 | Despite the March 2020 COVID crash, Armstrong forecast the Dow would resume climbing to new record highs "as early as 2022," reaching the 35,000-40,000 level. The Dow set a run of record closes into early 2022, hitting an all-time-high close of 36,799.65 (intraday 36,952.65) on January 4, 2022 -- squarely in the 35,000-40,000 band and within the stated window. The rally then reversed into a 2022 bear market, with the Dow closing the year at 33,147.25. | ✔ Hit | Financial Sense Insider interview with Martin Armstrong (aired March 23, 2020; published April 23, 2020) |
| Dec 2021 | Dow headed to 40,000. The DJIA crossed 40,000 in May 2024. The interview framed it directionally; no hard deadline was stated, so the hit is on level, not timing. | ✔ HitNo stated deadline | Financial Sense |
| ~2030 | Armstrong forecast a Dow price target of 65,000 around the 2030 timeframe, driven by his capital-flows thesis (collapsing bond yields forcing pension/institutional money into equities). Armstrong told Financial Sense in March 2021 that, looking out to around 2030, his capital-flows thesis pointed to a Dow price target of 65,000. As of July 13, 2026 the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near 52,499 — above his earlier 40,000 milestone but still well short of 65,000, with the 2030 window not yet closed. | ◷ Pending | Financial Sense — "Martin Armstrong on Dow 40,000 and 2022 Political Panic" (March 24, 2021), corroborated by Armstrong's own public post at armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/new-interview-down-the-rabbit-hole-to-dow-65000/ (Feb 4, 2022) |
| 2022 | Armstrong said "no market implosion coming to the US," with capital fleeing war-torn Europe/Asia keeping the Dow rising toward 35,000 then 65,000, even as he flagged 2022 and 2024 as panic-cycle years. Armstrong said "no market implosion coming to the US" even though his own model flagged 2022 as a panic-cycle year. In 2022 the S&P 500 fell about 19% for the year (25% peak-to-trough), the Nasdaq fell about 33%, and the Dow dropped roughly 9% with a 20%+ intrayear drawdown — a real bear market in the year he said wouldn't have one. | ✖ Miss | Financial Survival Network (Kerry Lutz) podcast #5122, "Martin Armstrong - Dow 65,000 - No US Stock Market Correction," Apr 14, 2021 |
| 2025-04-07 | In a CapitalCosm YouTube interview posted April 11, 2025, Martin Armstrong said his Socrates computer "had projected actually April 7th for the target for the low" of the Trump tariff-driven market correction, after which markets would turn back up. The S&P 500 hit its absolute intraday low of the entire tariff selloff on April 7, 2025 at 9:43am ET (4,835.04, briefly touching bear-market territory), then surged 8.5% in ~30 minutes on tariff-pause rumors; that intraday print was never revisited. Closing prices dipped slightly further the next day (April 8 close 4,982.77 vs. April 7 close 5,062.25) before the historic +9.52% rally on April 9 following Trump's tariff-pause announcement, confirming the correction's turn began right around April 7. | ✔ HitSelf-reported (retrospective) | CapitalCosm - Martin Armstrong Reveals INSIDER INTEL on Trump Tariff War (Apr 2025) |
| June-July 2025 | On the May 3, 2025 Talk Digital Network show, Martin Armstrong forecast that crude oil, after an April 2025 turning point, would start rising again during the June-July 2025 period. WTI crude averaged $62.17/bbl in May 2025 (the actual low) before rising to $68.17 in June and $68.39 in July 2025, per EIA spot price data, with a sharp mid-June spike above $77 during the Israel-Iran conflict. | ✔ Hit | Talk Digital Network - Ross Clark: Markets. Martin Armstrong: Alberta Separation, USD, Recession. Rick Ackerman: US Economy (May 2025) |
| made 2026-06-27; window: after July 2026 | Armstrong said "oil is going to take off again after a July low," in a June 27, 2026 USAWatchdog interview. WTI fell to roughly $68-69/bbl in early July 2026, then rallied to $79.56/bbl by July 14 amid escalating US-Iran conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. The stated window ("after July 2026") has not closed, so a durable post-July-low takeoff is not yet confirmable. | ◷ PendingConfounded by events | USAWatchdog (Armstrong interview, syndicated, confirmed as Armstrong Economics' Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com/Socrates references) |
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Rules this tracker follows, in full:
Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model (ECM) — the engine behind most calls on this page — runs on an 8.6-year wave. Why 8.6? He tallied 26 financial panics between 1683 and 1907, divided 224 years by 26, and got 8.6 — then noticed 8.6 years is 3,141 days: pi × 1000. Hence the nickname, and this site’s name.
Believers point to the dated hits in the table above. Critics note the misses in the same table, and Cornell economist Karel Mertens has called the cycle’s fit to past recessions coincidental — "comparable to numerology." This site doesn’t referee the theory; it scores the dated calls the model produces. The table is the argument.
Not to be confused with: the Bitcoin "Pi Cycle Top" indicator — a crypto moving-average crossover tool that shares the name and nothing else.
It’s genuinely mixed, which is why a ledger is useful. His reported early calls (1987, the 1989 Nikkei, February 2007) built the legend; his dated public calls since 2008 include several documented misses (the 2009 Dow-4,000 target, the October 1, 2015 "Big Bang"). Filter the table above and read the sources — that’s the point of this site.
An American economic forecaster, developer of the Economic Confidence Model (a 51.6-year cycle theory), and founder of Armstrong Economics. He was also convicted in the Princeton Economics case — he pleaded guilty to conspiracy and spent roughly 11 years in custody (contempt plus sentence) before release in 2011. His following remained loyal through it; the 2014 documentary The Forecaster tells his side.
No. Independent, unaffiliated, and built only from public sources. Nothing here is financial advice.