Every dated, publicly documented gold and silver forecast by Martin Armstrong — scored against what actually happened, with a source link on every row. Public sources only. No affiliation.
Last updated: July 17, 2026 · 15 tracked calls
Independent tracker · Not affiliated with Armstrong Economics · Not financial advice
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Positions are calendar arithmetic from Armstrong’s published 8.6-year constant (3,141 days ≈ π×1000) and the interval series in his 1999 essay — model math, not forecasts, and not an endorsement of the model.
| Made | Prediction & outcome | Verdict | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011–13 | Gold as high as $5,000/oz in the cycle ahead. Gold peaked at $1,920 in September 2011 and spent the following four years falling; $5,000 was never approached in that cycle. | ✖ MissAs characterized by Financial Sense | Financial Sense |
| 2011–15 | Gold correcting into a cycle low at ECM 2015.75 (October 1, 2015), then turning back up. Gold’s secular low ($1,046) printed in early December 2015 — about nine weeks after the model date — and a multi-year advance followed. | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Indigo Precious Metals |
| 2017 & 2020 | From the 2015 gold cycle low, Armstrong called new US-dollar highs for gold in both 2017 and 2020, with a minimum target of $2,300 and a technical max of $5,000. 2017: gold topped near $1,357, well short of a new all-time high since 2011's ~$1,920 record stood — a miss for that leg. 2020: gold set a new nominal record, touching $2,075 intraday and closing above $2,070 in August 2020 — a hit for that leg; the $2,300 minimum wasn't reached until 2024. | ◐ PartialReported (secondhand) | Indigo Precious Metals (republishing Martin Armstrong), "Gold Cycles And What To Expect," Aug 5 2015 |
| 2032 (2017 marker) | Armstrong's Panic Cycle Model called for gold's "final high on this run" in the year 2032, with a secondary marker of elevated volatility due in 2017. 2017 turned out to be one of gold's calmer years, trading in roughly a $1,150–$1,349 range (about $200, +13% on the year) rather than showing the flagged elevated volatility. The 2032 "final high" call is the primary, still-open claim and cannot be assessed until then. | ◷ PendingReported (secondhand) | Indigo Precious Metals, "Gold Cycles And What To Expect – Martin Armstrong" (Aug 5, 2015; republishing/quoting Armstrong Economics content) |
| 2017 | Armstrong predicted gold would fall below $1,000 "into the abyss" during 2017, calling the drop "still on target." Gold never traded below $1,000 in 2017 — it bottomed near $1,150.27 in early January and closed the year around $1,302.55. Clear miss. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics — "Gold Headed Lower Under $1,000 into the Abyss" (Dec 9, 2016) |
| by Aug 31, 2024 | On the Aug 21, 2024 Commodity Culture interview, Martin Armstrong said gold clearing resistance "around the 2,700 area" would then hit "the big psychological number of 3,000... going into the end of the month" (i.e., by end of August 2024). Gold did not reach $3,000 by August 31, 2024 — it was trading near $2,500 (a then-record ~$2,531 set Aug 20, 2024) and didn't even clear $2,700 until October 17, 2024. Gold first hit $3,000 on March 14, 2025, roughly 6.5 months after Armstrong's stated window. | ✖ MissMinor context flag, not disqualifying: at the time Arms... | Commodity Culture - We Are On the Brink of Civil War and the Collapse of Nations Worldwide: Martin Armstrong (Aug 2024) |
| 2025-Q4/2026 | In a June 9, 2025 interview with Daniel Estulin, Martin Armstrong said that once gold broke through $4,000/oz it would rally up to the $6,800-$7,000 range, tied to a geopolitical/war cycle he expected to intensify by Q4 2025 or during 2026. Gold broke $4,000/oz on Oct 8, 2025 and rallied further amid escalating US-Iran tensions to an all-time high of about $5,589/oz on Jan 28, 2026 - well short of $6,800-7,000. It has since given back most of that rally, trading around $4,070/oz on July 14, 2026 (touching $4,001 on July 13), leaving the target far out of reach with under six months left in the stated window. | ◷ PendingPENDING - window open through Dec 2026; peak so far ($5... | Martin Armstrong - Interview with Daniel Estulin (Jun 2025) |
| Week of July 14-21, 2025 (deadline: ~3 weeks into July from June 23 taping) | On the June 23, 2025 CapitalCosm interview, Martin Armstrong said his computer model ("Socrates") showed gold pulling back to retest the $3,000 level, expected within a week or, at the latest, by about three weeks into July 2025 (week of ~July 14-21). Gold never came close to $3,000 in that window. It traded roughly $3,280-$3,400/oz throughout late June and July 2025, including $3,338/oz on July 3, $3,320/oz on June 30, and about $3,385-3,393/oz on July 21, 2025 — the end of Armstrong's stated deadline. | ✖ Miss | CapitalCosm - Insider Sources Preparing for BIG WAR (here's when) (Jun 2025) |
| Late Jan 2026 (breakout), within Apr 30 2026 window | On "Why Gold Wont Crash" (Soar Financially, Nov 17, 2025), Martin Armstrong said gold's then-current ~$4,000 consolidation would run roughly three months and end around January 2026, after which it would break higher, with war serving as the catalyst driving gold's bid in 2026. Gold, which had been consolidating near $4,000/oz since November 2025, broke out to a new all-time high of roughly $5,589-5,600/oz on January 28-29, 2026, as Iran-US-Israel war tensions escalated sharply (Trump's "massive Armada" threat against Iran). The rally continued into April 2026 amid further geopolitical and tariff-driven volatility, before a sharp pullback followed the actual Feb 28, 2026 US-Israeli strike on Iran. | ✔ HitQuote contains Armstrong's characteristic hedge words (... | Soar Financially - Why Gold Wont Crash (Nov 2025) |
| Sep 2025 | On Michael Campbell's Money Talks (Mike and Marty, Episode 3, "The Tides of War," Sept 20 2025), Martin Armstrong forecast gold rising to roughly $5,000-$6,000 by 2030, driven by currency decline amid war and geopolitical turmoil. Gold spot price was about $4,070/oz on July 14, 2026, roughly 68-81% of the way to the $5,000-$6,000 target with over three years left on the clock; the 2030 deadline has not arrived, so the forecast cannot yet be scored hit or miss. | ◷ Pending | Michael Campbell's Money Talks - The Tides of War, Mike and Marty Ep. 3 (Sep 2025) |
| ~2032 (interim $75 target already exceeded, Jan 2026) | On Kerry Lutz's Financial Survival Network (Aug 5, 2025), Martin Armstrong forecast silver would break the $50 resistance level and rise to "about $75," as an early leg of a cycle path (2025 directional change, 2026 turning point) building toward a major panic-cycle high around 2029-2032. Silver broke $50 and blew far past $75, hitting an all-time high of $121.62/oz on Jan 29, 2026, before crashing over 30% in about 30 hours to an intraday low just under $75 on Jan 30, 2026; it traded near $57.90 as of July 14, 2026. The near-term $50-to-$75 breakout was confirmed and greatly exceeded, but the ultimate 2029-2032 panic-cycle high Armstrong tied it to has not yet arrived. | ◐ PartialInterim target hit; 2032 leg open | Kerry Lutz's Financial Survival Network - What the Model Sees Next Part 2 (Aug 2025) |
| By Jan 31, 2026 | On Commodity Culture (Dec 30, 2025), Martin Armstrong forecast that silver would break through the $100-104 psychological resistance zone as early as January 2026. Silver broke through $100/oz on January 23, 2026, then surged to a new all-time high of $121.64/oz by January 29, 2026, clearing both the $100 and $104 resistance levels within the January window he named. | ✔ Hit | Commodity Culture - 'Panic Cycle' Coming in 2026 (Dec 2025) |
| Jun 2026 | Armstrong claims, after the fact, that his computer models had forecast both gold's January 2026 record peak (~$5,595–5,608) and the roughly 30% correction that followed, calling it a cyclical "washout" rather than the end of the bull market. Gold did peak near $5,595–5,608/oz around January 28-29, 2026 and fell to an intraday low of about $3,974 on June 24, 2026, a decline of roughly 29% — matching the price move Armstrong's article describes. No independently locatable public article from before the January peak states this specific target/timing, so the "forecast" is verifiable only as Armstrong's own retrospective claim, not as a dated public prediction made in advance. | ✔ HitSelf-reported (retrospective) | Armstrong Economics — "The Computer Was RIGHT About Gold" (June 26, 2026) |
| Feb 2026 | Armstrong forecast gold resistance at $8,500, then $10,000/oz "in the next few years," with silver targeted at $165–$200/oz. As of July 13, 2026, gold trades around $4,064/oz and silver around $58.85/oz, both far below the stated targets. The "next few years" window from the February 2026 call has not elapsed, so the outcome remains pending. | ◷ PendingReported (secondhand) | Canadian Mining Report, citing Feb 3, 2026 USAWatchdog interview with Martin Armstrong (syndicated via ZeroHedge Feb 5, 2026) |
| Jun 27, 2026 to Aug 2026 | Armstrong said gold "may be bottoming this week... heading up through August" 2026, in a June 27, 2026 USAWatchdog interview. On June 27, 2026, Armstrong told USAWatchdog gold "may be bottoming this week... heading up through August." By July 14, 2026 gold opened near its lowest level since late June (~$4,006-4,070/oz per Yahoo Finance/CNBC) as Iran-crisis tensions pushed prices down, the opposite of an immediate bottom, though the August rally window remains open. | ◷ PendingPartly hedged | USAWatchdog (Greg Hunter interview with Martin Armstrong) |
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Rules this tracker follows, in full:
Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model (ECM) — the engine behind most calls on this page — runs on an 8.6-year wave. Why 8.6? He tallied 26 financial panics between 1683 and 1907, divided 224 years by 26, and got 8.6 — then noticed 8.6 years is 3,141 days: pi × 1000. Hence the nickname, and this site’s name.
Believers point to the dated hits in the table above. Critics note the misses in the same table, and Cornell economist Karel Mertens has called the cycle’s fit to past recessions coincidental — "comparable to numerology." This site doesn’t referee the theory; it scores the dated calls the model produces. The table is the argument.
Not to be confused with: the Bitcoin "Pi Cycle Top" indicator — a crypto moving-average crossover tool that shares the name and nothing else.
It’s genuinely mixed, which is why a ledger is useful. His reported early calls (1987, the 1989 Nikkei, February 2007) built the legend; his dated public calls since 2008 include several documented misses (the 2009 Dow-4,000 target, the October 1, 2015 "Big Bang"). Filter the table above and read the sources — that’s the point of this site.
An American economic forecaster, developer of the Economic Confidence Model (a 51.6-year cycle theory), and founder of Armstrong Economics. He was also convicted in the Princeton Economics case — he pleaded guilty to conspiracy and spent roughly 11 years in custody (contempt plus sentence) before release in 2011. His following remained loyal through it; the 2014 documentary The Forecaster tells his side.
No. Independent, unaffiliated, and built only from public sources. Nothing here is financial advice.