Every dated, publicly documented forecast by Martin Armstrong (Armstrong Economics) — scored against what actually happened, with a source link on every row. Public sources only. No affiliation.
Last updated: July 17, 2026 · 86 tracked calls
Independent tracker · Not affiliated with Armstrong Economics · Not financial advice
One signup, everything we track: an email the moment a pending call hits or misses, the daily market numbers, the Sunday recap, and a heads-up when a forecast enters its final 30 days. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Positions are calendar arithmetic from Armstrong’s published 8.6-year constant (3,141 days ≈ π×1000) and the interval series in his 1999 essay — model math, not forecasts, and not an endorsement of the model.
| Made | Prediction & outcome | Verdict | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2015 | Armstrong said his Economic Confidence Model's pi-cycle turn at 2015.75 (~October 1, 2015) — first flagged in 1985 — would mark the sovereign debt crisis beginning to "really surface," calling it "a major change in trend of monumental proportion." No sovereign-debt crisis or crash occurred around the Oct 1, 2015 turn date; the S&P 500 instead rose 1.9% that day to close at 1,920.03. Armstrong later recharacterized 2015.75 in a Nov 3, 2019 post as merely "the START... NOT THE END" of a multi-year trend rather than a discrete crisis event. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics, "Debt, Debt, & More Debt: 2015.75" (published Sept 26, 2015) |
| 1987 | October 1987 crash — Economic Confidence Model turning point at 1987.8. The crash happened (Black Monday, Oct 19, 1987). The call is attributed to Armstrong by himself and clients; no contemporaneous public document verifies it independently. | ✔ HitReported (secondhand) | MoneyWeek |
| 1989 | Collapse of the Japanese Nikkei. The Nikkei peaked Dec 1989 and entered a multi-decade decline. Attribution rests on later reporting, not a contemporaneous public document. | ✔ HitReported (secondhand) | MoneyWeek |
| ≤1996 | Dow 6,000 by cycle target 1996.4. The Dow crossed 6,000 in October 1996. The claim is documented in his own 1999 essay after the fact, not in a contemporaneous public record. | ✔ HitSelf-reported (retrospective) | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| ≤1998 | Dow 10,000 for 1998. The 1998 high was roughly 9,400; the Dow first closed above 10,000 in March 1999 — months past the stated year. | ◐ PartialSelf-reported (retrospective) | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| 1998 | ECM peak at 1998.55 (July 20, 1998) — top in market liquidity and volume, with Russia’s troubles hitting Western markets. US equities peaked July 17–20, 1998, then fell sharply as Russia defaulted and Long-Term Capital Management imploded. Caveat: his contemporaneous Financial Times quote (June 27, 1998) warned Russia would damage Europe; "predicted the collapse itself" is his later retelling. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| 1999 | Business-cycle decline running into ECM 2002.85 (November 8, 2002). The dot-com bear market bottomed October 9, 2002 — about four weeks before the model date. His accompanying scenario ("a high in 2002/2003... may be followed by a crash") was hedged and didn’t play out; the dated part nearly did. | ◐ Partial | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| 1999 | "Periods of economic strife will begin to grow in intensity... moving into 2007.15" (Feb 26–27, 2007). February 27, 2007 brought the sharp global selloff (the Shanghai-triggered correction) that opened the pre-crisis jitters; MoneyWeek reported he called the turn "to the very date." The 2007.15 date was published on his own site in 1999 — in advance. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| 2007 | Bullish 2008: market rebound, housing recovery, oil above $100, gold over $2,000. Oil did cross $100 in early 2008 (component hit). But 2008 brought the global financial crisis — equities collapsed, housing worsened, and gold didn’t reach $2,000 until 2020. | ✖ MissOne component (oil) correct | MoneyWeek |
| 2007 | "Next major slump" beginning June 18, 2011. A major slump did occur in 2011 — but in August (US downgrade / debt-ceiling crisis), not on the named June date. | ◐ PartialRight year, wrong date | MoneyWeek |
| Dec 2008 | DJIA to bottom near 4,000, with the low arriving April–June 2009. The bear-market low was 6,440 on March 9, 2009 — roughly 2,440 points above the target and earlier than the stated window. | ✖ Miss | CXO Advisory |
| May 2009 | New DJIA low in September–October 2009. No low occurred in that window; the market kept rallying. | ✖ Miss | CXO Advisory |
| Aug 2009 | Rally into January 2010, then a major low mid-2011 and a major high late 2015. CXO graded the short-term rally call "essentially correct"; the mid-2011 low loosely rhymes with the Aug 2011 selloff, while "major high late 2015" did not mark a cycle top. | ◐ Partial | CXO Advisory |
| Oct 2015 | Armstrong forecast in a public Aug 14, 2009 research note ("Will the Dow Reach 30,000 by 2015?") that the Dow would rise to roughly 30,000 "going into October 1st, 2015," tied to his Economic Confidence Model's 2015.75 cycle peak; the call was recapped by Seeking Alpha in 2013. The Dow closed 2015 at 17,425.03 (Dec 31, 2015), about 42% below the 30,000 target and far from the "going into October 1, 2015" timing Armstrong specified. The index did not reach 30,000 until November 2020, more than five years after his stated window. | ✖ MissTiming near-miss | "Will the Dow Reach 30,000 by 2015?" - Martin A. Armstrong, Aug 14, 2009 (public research note, reproduced on Yumpu; copyright Martin A. Armstrong) |
| 2011–13 | Gold as high as $5,000/oz in the cycle ahead. Gold peaked at $1,920 in September 2011 and spent the following four years falling; $5,000 was never approached in that cycle. | ✖ MissAs characterized by Financial Sense | Financial Sense |
| 2011–15 | Gold correcting into a cycle low at ECM 2015.75 (October 1, 2015), then turning back up. Gold’s secular low ($1,046) printed in early December 2015 — about nine weeks after the model date — and a multi-year advance followed. | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Indigo Precious Metals |
| 2017 | Armstrong Economics' July 14, 2017 blog post reiterated 2011-era Dow price targets of 18,500, 23,000, and 40,000, stating a minimum TIME objective of 2016/2017, with further time targets in 2020 and 2022 "setting up for a major vertical move." The Dow closed above 23,000 for the first time on October 18, 2017 (23,157.60), matching the stated 2016/2017 window. It did not reach 40,000 within the 2020-2022 window, however; the Dow closed 2022 at 33,147.25 and did not cross 40,000 until May 2024, roughly two years after the stated time target. | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics - "The Dow & The Future" (July 14, 2017) |
| 2016.202 (~Mar 13-14, 2016) | In a 2011 report ("The Rise and Fall of the Euro"), Armstrong forecast a collapse in confidence in the euro at cycle date 2016.202 — roughly March 13-14, 2016, about 17.2 years after the euro's Jan 1, 1999 launch. No euro collapse occurred around March 2016; EUR/USD traded in roughly the $1.09-$1.14 range that month (low 1.0868 on March 1, high 1.1381 on March 31), and the eurozone remained intact with no breakup or currency collapse. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics, "Is The Pending Euro Collapse On Target From Our 2011 Forecast Of 2016.202?" (Feb 17, 2016) |
| 2014 | On Dec 3, 2013, Armstrong flagged Ukraine as the country to watch, writing the War Cycle turns up in 2014 and that Ukraine could become the focal point of rising tensions with Russia "smelling the blood of a weak Europe and United States." Euromaidan protests (already underway when he wrote this) escalated through the winter, President Yanukovych was ousted on Feb 22, 2014, and Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014, followed by war in the Donbas -- Ukraine became the year's dominant geopolitical flashpoint exactly as he flagged. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics blog, "Ukraine Maybe The Most Important Country To Watch" (Dec 3, 2013) |
| 2017-2018 | Armstrong wrote that the War Cycle's civil-unrest component turned in 2014, paralleling the 1964 turn that preceded the 1960s riots, and that a renewed peak in race riots "will not arrive before 2017-2018." No comparable nationwide race-riot peak occurred in 2017-2018 (Charlottesville, Aug. 2017, was the closest notable flashpoint but far smaller in scale). The next major U.S. civil-unrest wave was the May-June 2020 George Floyd protests, widely described as the largest since 1968, arriving roughly two to three years after Armstrong's stated window. | ✖ MissTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics blog, "Are We On The Verge Of Renewed Race Riots With The Turn In The War Cycle In 2014?" (Aug 17, 2014) |
| 2017 & 2020 | From the 2015 gold cycle low, Armstrong called new US-dollar highs for gold in both 2017 and 2020, with a minimum target of $2,300 and a technical max of $5,000. 2017: gold topped near $1,357, well short of a new all-time high since 2011's ~$1,920 record stood — a miss for that leg. 2020: gold set a new nominal record, touching $2,075 intraday and closing above $2,070 in August 2020 — a hit for that leg; the $2,300 minimum wasn't reached until 2024. | ◐ PartialReported (secondhand) | Indigo Precious Metals (republishing Martin Armstrong), "Gold Cycles And What To Expect," Aug 5 2015 |
| 2032 (2017 marker) | Armstrong's Panic Cycle Model called for gold's "final high on this run" in the year 2032, with a secondary marker of elevated volatility due in 2017. 2017 turned out to be one of gold's calmer years, trading in roughly a $1,150–$1,349 range (about $200, +13% on the year) rather than showing the flagged elevated volatility. The 2032 "final high" call is the primary, still-open claim and cannot be assessed until then. | ◷ PendingReported (secondhand) | Indigo Precious Metals, "Gold Cycles And What To Expect – Martin Armstrong" (Aug 5, 2015; republishing/quoting Armstrong Economics content) |
| Aug 2015 | In an Aug 17, 2015 blog post, Armstrong said his computer model forecast a "non-politician era for 2016," citing Trump and Carson as far ahead of the field (Bush "holding on to 5%") more than a year before the election. Trump won the November 8, 2016 general election over Hillary Clinton. Carson, the other "non-politician" Armstrong named as a front-runner, dropped out of the primary in March 2016 without winning any state. | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics, "The Election of 2016" (Aug 17, 2015) |
| 2015 | Armstrong forecast the euro's 2015 short-term trading range would run from parity (1.00) with the dollar up to about 1.16-1.17, calling parity "the best we should see short-term." The euro never reached parity in 2015 — EUR/USD bottomed around $1.05 in mid-March 2015 and closed the year near $1.09. The euro did not actually hit parity with the dollar until July 2022, roughly seven years later. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics, "Euro & Par" (April 2, 2015) |
| 2017 | Armstrong predicted gold would fall below $1,000 "into the abyss" during 2017, calling the drop "still on target." Gold never traded below $1,000 in 2017 — it bottomed near $1,150.27 in early January and closed the year around $1,302.55. Clear miss. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics — "Gold Headed Lower Under $1,000 into the Abyss" (Dec 9, 2016) |
| 2016 | Armstrong said his "War Cycle" (which turned up in 2014) pointed to escalating US-Russia confrontation over Ukraine and Syria, intensifying into 2020. US-Russia tensions did rise through the period (Ukraine's low-grade conflict, Syria proxy fighting, election-interference sanctions) but did not erupt into direct war by 2020 as the cited window implied. The major escalation Armstrong's model seemed to anticipate — Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine — didn't occur until February 24, 2022, about two years past the stated 2020 window. | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics blog, "War Cycle On Target - Sad To Say" (Oct 11, 2016) |
| 2016 | Armstrong wrote (Feb 22, 2016) that Britain would break from the EU in 2016, tying the timing to the 8.6-year cycle from Britain's 1973 EU entry (43 years = 2016) and to his "Big Bang" turn starting 2015.75 — a call he said he'd first given at a 1999 seminar ("not before 2016"). The UK held its Brexit referendum on June 23, 2016, and voted to Leave 51.9%-48.1%, landing squarely in the 2016 window Armstrong specified four months earlier. (The UK's actual legal exit did not occur until January 31, 2020, but Armstrong's dated call was about the 2016 timing/break, not the formal departure date.) | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics, "Brexit – On Schedule" (Feb 22, 2016) |
| Nov 24/25, 2017 | Armstrong forecast that the ECM turning point of November 24/25, 2017 (2017.9) would produce a temporary high in the stock market. The Dow did not top out in late November 2017; it kept climbing through the ECM date and set a new record close of 26,616.71 on January 26, 2018, before the February 2018 correction began. | ✖ MissTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics - "The ECM Turning Point Here In November" (Nov 8, 2017) |
| Dec 2017 | Armstrong's Socrates system flagged Bitcoin's Dec 2017 high, with his Dec 22, 2017 blog post noting bearish trend/momentum models pointing to a retest of support after the ~$19,700 peak. Bitcoin peaked near $19,700 around Dec 17, 2017, then fell below $10,000 by mid-to-late January 2018 and to roughly $6,000 by early February 2018, confirming the further-decline call. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics — "BitCoin Crash" (Dec 22, 2017) |
| 2021 | Armstrong predicted the Dow Jones Industrial Average would reach at least 35,000 by 2021, driven by capital flight from struggling foreign markets into US equities. The Dow closed 2021 at 36,338.30 on December 31, 2021, exceeding the 35,000 target within the stated window. | ✔ Hit | Peak Prosperity interview with Martin Armstrong, "Martin Armstrong: Dow 35,000 By 2021?" (published July 16, 2019) |
| Jan 2020 | Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model pointed to a major turning point around January 2020, forecasting a global shift in public confidence, a new inflationary wave, and declining trust in governments and central banks. Global equity markets kept climbing into January 2020 (Dow record 29,373 on Jan 17, 2020) and topped in mid-February (S&P 500 record close 3,386 on Feb 19, 2020) before crashing over 30% into the March 23, 2020 COVID panic low -- a sharp confidence break did land close to the stated window. But it was driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, not the predicted inflationary wave or loss of trust in government/central banks (inflation didn't surge until 2021-22, and central banks were initially credited for stimulus, not distrusted). | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics - "The Great Alignment & 2020" (July 16, 2019) |
| 2027 | Armstrong's War Cycle model flagged a possible peak risk of broader international war "as early as 2027," naming 2024-2027 as the period of concern. As of July 2026, no broader international war (WWIII-scale) has materialized; the stated 2024-2027 window remains open with roughly six months left. Armstrong Economics has continued reiterating the 2026-2027 war-cycle/panic-cycle risk in subsequent posts through 2026. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics, "World War III - 2024-2027?" (Jun 19, 2019) |
| after 2032 (open window) | Armstrong forecasts China will become "the financial capital of the world" after 2032, once continual Western borrowing breaks confidence in the US/Europe — a claim tied to his ECM cycle-turn date, not a price or index level. Armstrong has publicly stated China becomes the world's financial capital only "after 2032," contingent on Western sovereign-debt confidence breaking first; he has repeated the call across public posts/interviews since at least 2019. The post-2032 window has not opened as of July 14, 2026, so it cannot yet be scored hit/miss. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics — "China: The Financial Capital Of The World After 2032" |
| Jan 2020 | Following the January 18, 2020 ECM turning point and coronavirus news, Armstrong said markets would see choppiness until April 2020 with a general turning point around May 2020. Markets instead crashed sharply between February 20 and March 23, 2020, with the S&P 500 falling roughly 34% to its low, then began a rapid V-shaped rally well before May 2020 — not the choppy-then-May-turn pattern described. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics - "Coronavirus & The ECM" (Jan 30, 2020) |
| 2022 | Armstrong predicted the next disease event to reach true pandemic-level severity — not the then-emerging coronavirus — would hit in 2022, potentially killing 65-100 million, based on a 13/16-year disease cycle tied to the solar minimum. The novel coronavirus itself was declared a global pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020, just six weeks after this post, with the heaviest death tolls in 2020-2021, not 2022. Cumulative COVID-19 deaths never approached 65-100 million in any single year, including 2022 (official global cumulative counts stayed around 6-7 million). | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics – "The Disease Cycle Turned Up – Next Peak 2022" (Jan 26, 2020) |
| Mar 2020 | In a March 3, 2020 post, Armstrong cited an "international and Chinese expert" team's finding that China's coronavirus epidemic had already peaked between January 23 and February 2, 2020, and was declining since, using this to argue media coverage of the outbreak was overblown panic. WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic eight days later (March 11, 2020), and confirmed cases and deaths grew worldwide for years, not weeks. China itself saw repeated fresh outbreaks and prolonged lockdowns well past early 2020 (including Shanghai's citywide lockdown in 2022), so even limited to China the "peaked and declining" call did not hold up. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics - "Coronavirus Panic" |
| Nov 2020 | Armstrong said his computer model showed Trump "should win" the 2020 election, while separately warning unverified mail-in voting would make it the most corrupt election in American history and that neither side would accept a loss. Biden defeated Trump in the November 3, 2020 election, 306-232 in the Electoral College and by roughly 7 million votes nationally; Trump did not win. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics, "The 2020 Election" (May 22, 2020) |
| Dec 2020 | In a Dec 2, 2020 forecast-array analysis, Armstrong called Bitcoin's turning point for November 2020, said volatility would rise in December, and forecast it would "scale into a Panic Cycle by next June" (June 2021). Bitcoin rallied from roughly $19,000 in November 2020 to an all-time high of $64,895 on April 14, 2021, then crashed to a five-month low near $28,600-$28,800 on June 22, 2021 -- a decline of about 56%, arriving within the stated "by next June" window. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics -- "Analyzing Bitcoin" (Dec 2, 2020) |
| 2020-2022 | Armstrong claimed COVID lockdowns would produce a Great Depression worse than the 1930s with "NO HOPE IN HELL" of recovery, forecasting a "crash and burn into 2022." Equity markets staged a V-shaped recovery instead: the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both closed 2020 at then-record highs after the March 2020 low, and the US economy posted strong growth through 2021 with no depression materializing in the 2020-2022 window. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics - "The 2020-2022 Great Depression Coming To Neighborhood Near You!" (April 19, 2020) |
| 2022 | Despite the March 2020 COVID crash, Armstrong forecast the Dow would resume climbing to new record highs "as early as 2022," reaching the 35,000-40,000 level. The Dow set a run of record closes into early 2022, hitting an all-time-high close of 36,799.65 (intraday 36,952.65) on January 4, 2022 -- squarely in the 35,000-40,000 band and within the stated window. The rally then reversed into a 2022 bear market, with the Dow closing the year at 33,147.25. | ✔ Hit | Financial Sense Insider interview with Martin Armstrong (aired March 23, 2020; published April 23, 2020) |
| 2020 | Armstrong forecast a "Monetary Crisis Cycle" running into 2021-2022, driving inflation via commodity shortages as capital fled collapsing government bond markets into equities. US CPI inflation surged to a 9.1% year-over-year peak in June 2022 (BLS), with commodity and supply-chain shortages widely cited as key drivers, matching the inflation/commodity component of the call. But government bond markets did not collapse via failed issuance as described, and equities fell sharply in 2022 (S&P 500 down roughly 19%) rather than benefiting from a capital flight out of bonds. | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics - "Inflation Into 2021" (June 4, 2020) |
| Dec 2021 | Dow headed to 40,000. The DJIA crossed 40,000 in May 2024. The interview framed it directionally; no hard deadline was stated, so the hit is on level, not timing. | ✔ HitNo stated deadline | Financial Sense |
| ~2030 | Armstrong forecast a Dow price target of 65,000 around the 2030 timeframe, driven by his capital-flows thesis (collapsing bond yields forcing pension/institutional money into equities). Armstrong told Financial Sense in March 2021 that, looking out to around 2030, his capital-flows thesis pointed to a Dow price target of 65,000. As of July 13, 2026 the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near 52,499 — above his earlier 40,000 milestone but still well short of 65,000, with the 2030 window not yet closed. | ◷ Pending | Financial Sense — "Martin Armstrong on Dow 40,000 and 2022 Political Panic" (March 24, 2021), corroborated by Armstrong's own public post at armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/new-interview-down-the-rabbit-hole-to-dow-65000/ (Feb 4, 2022) |
| 2022 | Armstrong said "no market implosion coming to the US," with capital fleeing war-torn Europe/Asia keeping the Dow rising toward 35,000 then 65,000, even as he flagged 2022 and 2024 as panic-cycle years. Armstrong said "no market implosion coming to the US" even though his own model flagged 2022 as a panic-cycle year. In 2022 the S&P 500 fell about 19% for the year (25% peak-to-trough), the Nasdaq fell about 33%, and the Dow dropped roughly 9% with a 20%+ intrayear drawdown — a real bear market in the year he said wouldn't have one. | ✖ Miss | Financial Survival Network (Kerry Lutz) podcast #5122, "Martin Armstrong - Dow 65,000 - No US Stock Market Correction," Apr 14, 2021 |
| 2023 | Armstrong's computer model forecast civil unrest turning upward from 2014, becoming "critical" in 2023 (tied to Critical Race Theory-driven tension) and escalating into 2032, with a "great financial upheaval" by 2028. 2023 saw ~29,500 US protest events (Crowd Counting Consortium) but violence remained historically low — only 0.3% of events had injuries and 3 protester deaths, far below 2020's George Floyd-era unrest (472 injury events, $1-2B in damage). No "critical" escalation of civil unrest occurred in 2023 relative to 2020. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics, "Why The US Will Collapse Under Civil Unrest" (Dec 19, 2022) |
| Deadline: end of 2022 | Armstrong predicted "much higher inflation and much higher interest rates by the end of 2022." Rates hit: the Fed funds target range rose from 0-0.25% (Jan 2022) to 4.25-4.50% (Dec 2022). Inflation missed: CPI fell from 7.0% YoY (Dec 2021) to 6.5% YoY (Dec 2022) by the stated deadline, after peaking at 9.1% in June 2022 — lower, not "much higher," than when the call was made. | ◐ Partial | USAWatchdog — "New World Order Desperate as Plan Falls Apart – Martin Armstrong" (Feb 19, 2022) |
| 2023 / January 2023 | Armstrong predicted "2023 will be the year from Hell" with civil unrest worsening and "full blown war next year" (2023), plus European capital rushing into the US by January 2023 as the Ukraine crisis escalated. 2023 saw no broad multinational "full blown war" — the Ukraine war continued at similar intensity and the Israel-Hamas war only began in October 2023, not matching the predicted general escalation, and no evidence surfaced of a January 2023 European-capital-flight-to-US event at the scale described. | ✖ Miss | Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog — "Banking Crisis Will Start in Europe – Martin Armstrong" (Sep 24, 2022) |
| January 2023 | Armstrong forecast January 2023 as "the major turning point for the entire year," predicting the US dollar would rise along with gold and other tangible assets, plus rising interest rates and inflation. Gold did rise as forecast (~$1,827 to ~$1,926/oz over January 2023), but the dollar moved the opposite direction (NY Fed: broad trade-weighted dollar index depreciated 1.6% in Q1 2023; euro +1.3% vs. dollar; CNBC reported the dollar "slumping" through mid-January) and CPI inflation kept cooling rather than rising (6.5% to 6.4% YoY). A mixed call: only the gold component was correct. | ◐ Partial | Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog - "Nightmare Fall of United States – Martin Armstrong" (Dec 17, 2022) |
| May 2024 | Armstrong forecast in November 2023 that the May 7, 2024 (2024.35) ECM turning point would mark the point where a brewing global Sovereign Debt Crisis "comes to a head," with China already dumping US debt and a market crash to follow once buyers for US debt disappear. As of July 2026, more than two years past the May 7, 2024 turning point, no sovereign-debt-driven market crash has occurred; Treasury auctions have continued to clear, though 2026 brought weaker demand and higher yields (10-year near 4.6%, 30-year briefly above 5%) and mounting fiscal-crisis commentary, including further warnings from Armstrong himself. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics – "Beware May 7th, 2024" (Nov 27, 2023) |
| 2023 | In March 2023 Armstrong said the Ukraine war was already producing a "Financial Crisis of 2023," with cyclical war and financial-crisis models colliding around an April 10 ECM turning point into what he called a "two-prong panic of unprecedented significance." The March 2023 regional-bank stress (SVB, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse) was contained within weeks and no broader financial crisis or panic followed; the S&P 500 rose roughly 24% (price) over 2023 instead. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics — "Financial Crisis Of 2023" (public blog, Mar 17, 2023) |
| Nov 2024 | In a June 2024 interview titled "Trump Wins 2024 — Chaos to Follow," Armstrong forecast a Trump election victory (based on his Socrates model showing a global shift to the right) alongside significant political/social turmoil after the win. Trump won the November 5, 2024 election as forecast. The following year brought substantial political conflict — mass federal layoffs and DOGE-driven agency upheaval, tariff-fueled market volatility, immigration-enforcement unrest, and large nationwide protests (e.g. the June 2025 "No Kings" demonstrations) — consistent with the "chaos to follow" framing. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics, "Interview: Trump Wins 2024 — Chaos To Follow" (posted Jun 23, 2024; interview with Kerry Lutz's Financial Survival Network, aired ~Jun 21, 2024) |
| 2024.679 (Sept 2024) | Armstrong warned the "Civil War Cycle" turned up on 2024.679 (Sept 4/5, 2024), that neither side would accept the 2024 election result, that it might be the last US election ever, and that the country risked roughly two years of civil war into 2026 with the military splitting. The November 2024 election was held on schedule, certified by Congress on January 6, 2025, and followed by a peaceful transfer of power at inauguration on January 20, 2025. As of July 2026 there has been no civil war, no military split, and no cancellation of elections. | ✖ MissSelf-reported (retrospective) | Armstrong Economics blog, "Will The US Go Into Civil War 2025-2026? Will 2024 Be The Last Election?" |
| by Aug 31, 2024 | On the Aug 21, 2024 Commodity Culture interview, Martin Armstrong said gold clearing resistance "around the 2,700 area" would then hit "the big psychological number of 3,000... going into the end of the month" (i.e., by end of August 2024). Gold did not reach $3,000 by August 31, 2024 — it was trading near $2,500 (a then-record ~$2,531 set Aug 20, 2024) and didn't even clear $2,700 until October 17, 2024. Gold first hit $3,000 on March 14, 2025, roughly 6.5 months after Armstrong's stated window. | ✖ MissMinor context flag, not disqualifying: at the time Arms... | Commodity Culture - We Are On the Brink of Civil War and the Collapse of Nations Worldwide: Martin Armstrong (Aug 2024) |
| 2026 (2027-2029) | Armstrong forecast (via Socrates) that the international war cycle, building since 2022, peaks in 2026 with a "Panic Cycle" and escalates further into 2027-2028, with a separate civil-unrest cycle peaking in 2028/2029. The window is still open: as of July 13, 2026, geopolitical tension (Russia-Ukraine war continuing, European rearmament debates, China-Taiwan friction) is elevated but no independently verifiable "panic cycle" peak or new major war has been confirmed to have occurred. 2027-2028 escalation and the 2028/2029 civil-unrest peak are entirely unresolved future windows. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics - "The Cycle Of War & Revolution" (Sept 1, 2025) |
| Mar 2025 | Armstrong's computer model forecast PANIC Cycles hitting globally in 2026, with nearly half of OECD/emerging-market government debt maturing by 2027, pointing to a sovereign-debt crisis window through 2027. As of July 2026, sovereign-debt stress is visible (Japan's bond market cracked in late January 2026, the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly topped 5% in May 2026, and Jamie Dimon warned of a coming "bond crisis"), and Armstrong himself says the crisis "has already begun," but no global panic-level sovereign-debt crash has been confirmed. The 2025-2027 window remains open. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics, "Sovereign Debt Crisis Unfolding" (Mar 20, 2025) |
| Mar 2025 | Armstrong said the EU's push to fund an army and prepare for war was "a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029." As of July 2026 the EU remains intact and functioning (Ireland took the rotating Council presidency July 1, 2026; routine legislative activity continues). The 2029 deadline has not yet arrived. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics, "Sovereign Debt Crisis Unfolding" (Mar 20, 2025) |
| 2026-2028 (pending) | Armstrong predicted Germany was heading into "a very serious debt crisis for 20-26" as part of a broader European sovereign-debt/political crisis running through the late 2020s. As of July 2026 no full-blown German sovereign-debt crisis has hit, but real strain has emerged: German bond auctions came close to failing on July 1 and again in early July 2026 (a 10-year Bund auction placed only ~€3.9bn of a planned €6bn, bid-to-cover 0.7), and Scope Ratings warned Germany must stabilize its debt trajectory to keep its AAA rating given ~4%-of-GDP deficits projected through 2030. The 2026-2028 window Armstrong specified is still running, so the call is unresolved rather than confirmed or falsified. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics, "Sovereign Debt Crisis Unfolding" (Mar 20, 2025) |
| 2026 | Armstrong predicted a "panic cycle" rapidly approaching the world in 2026, with the EU heading for a USSR-style breakup as political ideology overrides economic logic among European elites. As of July 13, 2026 no EU/eurozone collapse or breakup has occurred — the EU is operating normally (Ireland took the rotating Council presidency July 1, 2026; routine sanctions and policy business continuing). The stated 2026 window remains open, so this is unresolved. | ◷ PendingReported (secondhand) | Commodity Culture podcast (public interview with Martin Armstrong), published Dec 30, 2025, "'Panic Cycle' Coming in 2026 - 'It's Europe's Turn' to Collapse" |
| 2025-08-18 (target/trigger date) | Armstrong pinpointed August 18, 2025 as the trigger date for a "Panic Cycle" tied to war, escalating into 2026. Markets showed no panic on the pinpointed date: the S&P 500 fell just 0.3% to 6,449.80 on Aug 18, 2025, with the VIX at a calm 15.09, an ordinary day dominated by the Trump-Putin Alaska summit. Eleven months later, no market or war event is publicly tied to that specific date. | ✖ Miss | USAWatchdog (Greg Hunter interview with Martin Armstrong) |
| March 2026 | Armstrong repeatedly forecast (across at least four interviews, Aug-Dec 2025) that Europe would cancel physical cash and force a CBDC transition by January-March 2026, alongside capital controls. Euro cash remains legal tender with no cancellation announced. The European Commission only published its digital-euro framework on July 11, 2026; the ECB’s own roadmap targets a pilot in H2 2027 and possible issuance in 2029 — years past the claimed deadline. | ✖ Miss | CapitalCosm - Insider Sources Preparing For World War 3 in 2026 (Aug 2025) |
| By 2028 | In the "Iron Wire Report" interview with Will Dove (published June 8, 2025), Armstrong said that even if Trump pulls the US out of NATO, his computer model "is not very bullish on even having an election by 28" — i.e., his model is not confident the US will hold a presidential election by 2028. As of July 14, 2026, the 2028 US presidential election remains on the normal constitutional schedule for November 2028, with no official cancellation, postponement, or credible mechanism to skip it reported anywhere. The prediction's window (2028) has not yet arrived, so this cannot be scored hit/miss yet. | ◷ Pending | Martin Armstrong - The End of Canada | Interview with Will Dove of Iron Wire Report (Jun 2025) |
| By Dec 31, 2030 | On the Dialogue Works interview "This Is How World War III Starts... And It Already Has" (published Oct 31, 2025), Martin Armstrong said, in his own words describing a warning he gave EU officials, that he "seriously doubt[s] that the EU is going to be able to survive past 2030." The prediction window does not close until December 31, 2030, and today is July 14, 2026, so the EU's survival past that date cannot yet be assessed. No verdict is possible until the deadline passes. | ◷ Pendingpending-long-horizon-2030 | Dialogue Works - This Is How World War III Starts... And It Already Has (Oct 2025) |
| 2025-Q4/2026 | In a June 9, 2025 interview with Daniel Estulin, Martin Armstrong said that once gold broke through $4,000/oz it would rally up to the $6,800-$7,000 range, tied to a geopolitical/war cycle he expected to intensify by Q4 2025 or during 2026. Gold broke $4,000/oz on Oct 8, 2025 and rallied further amid escalating US-Iran tensions to an all-time high of about $5,589/oz on Jan 28, 2026 - well short of $6,800-7,000. It has since given back most of that rally, trading around $4,070/oz on July 14, 2026 (touching $4,001 on July 13), leaving the target far out of reach with under six months left in the stated window. | ◷ PendingPENDING - window open through Dec 2026; peak so far ($5... | Martin Armstrong - Interview with Daniel Estulin (Jun 2025) |
| By Dec 2028 | On the Metals and Miners YouTube channel (Mar 9, 2025), Martin Armstrong said his computer model shows the global recession that began turning down in May 2024 "won't bottom until probably 2028," with Europe seeing more of a depression and the US a milder recessionary trend. Deadline (Dec 31, 2028) has not arrived — as of July 2026 the window is still open. Armstrong Economics' own "The Economy Into 2028" forecast page and multiple other 2024-2026 interviews (USAWatchdog, Palisades Radio) repeat the same 2028-bottom / Europe-depression / US-recession framing, confirming this is a stable, repeated forecast tied to his Economic Confidence Model rather than an offhand remark, but no outcome data exists yet. | ◷ Pendingpending — revisit after 2028-12-31; verify against actu... | Metals and Miners - Martin Armstrong: War: US and China, EU, Ukr, Rus, Gold flows (Mar 2025) |
| By 2027-2028 (deadline used: Dec 31, 2028) | On the Metals and Miners YouTube channel (Mar 2025), Martin Armstrong said his computer model's "minimum realistic" projection is that the 30-year Treasury bond yield rises to 5%, and more probably as high as 8%, by 2027-2028. The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5% in a bond auction on May 13, 2026 (awarded at 5.046%, first time above 5% since 2007) and briefly hit 5.197% intraday on May 19, 2026 (per CNBC/CNN), before settling around 5.10% as of July 14, 2026 (Trading Economics). That clears Armstrong's "minimum realistic" floor more than a year ahead of his stated 2027-2028 window; his higher 8% figure has not been reached. | ◐ Partial5% floor cleared early; 8% target open to 2028 | Metals and Miners - WAR: US and China, EU, Ukr, Rus, Gold flows, market impacts (Mar 2025) |
| Week of July 14-21, 2025 (deadline: ~3 weeks into July from June 23 taping) | On the June 23, 2025 CapitalCosm interview, Martin Armstrong said his computer model ("Socrates") showed gold pulling back to retest the $3,000 level, expected within a week or, at the latest, by about three weeks into July 2025 (week of ~July 14-21). Gold never came close to $3,000 in that window. It traded roughly $3,280-$3,400/oz throughout late June and July 2025, including $3,338/oz on July 3, $3,320/oz on June 30, and about $3,385-3,393/oz on July 21, 2025 — the end of Armstrong's stated deadline. | ✖ Miss | CapitalCosm - Insider Sources Preparing for BIG WAR (here's when) (Jun 2025) |
| May 2026 | On Coffee and a Mike (Jul 10, 2025), Martin Armstrong said "our computer is showing a panic cycle for May of next year" (May 2026) and said Powell was "keeping rates steady mainly because he knows war is coming." May 2026 did show real stress -- April CPI (released May 13) hit 4.2%, its highest in three years, oil rose on stalled US-Iran talks, and retail long positioning on the Dow collapsed from 61% to 30% between May 11-25 -- but there was no crash or panic-level event in May itself; the acute sell-off (VIX up 40% in a day, $1.3T wiped from semiconductors, SOX's worst drop since the March 2020 COVID crash) hit on June 5, 2026, a month after his window. Separately, the Fed had held rates steady since its April 29 meeting (no May FOMC meeting occurs), with Powell serving as chair pro tempore until Kevin Warsh was sworn in as new Fed chair on May 22, 2026. | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Coffee and a Mike (Michael Farris) - 2032: Government Collapse and the Power of War (Jul 2025) |
| Late Jan 2026 (breakout), within Apr 30 2026 window | On "Why Gold Wont Crash" (Soar Financially, Nov 17, 2025), Martin Armstrong said gold's then-current ~$4,000 consolidation would run roughly three months and end around January 2026, after which it would break higher, with war serving as the catalyst driving gold's bid in 2026. Gold, which had been consolidating near $4,000/oz since November 2025, broke out to a new all-time high of roughly $5,589-5,600/oz on January 28-29, 2026, as Iran-US-Israel war tensions escalated sharply (Trump's "massive Armada" threat against Iran). The rally continued into April 2026 amid further geopolitical and tariff-driven volatility, before a sharp pullback followed the actual Feb 28, 2026 US-Israeli strike on Iran. | ✔ HitQuote contains Armstrong's characteristic hedge words (... | Soar Financially - Why Gold Wont Crash (Nov 2025) |
| Sep 2025 | On Michael Campbell's Money Talks (Mike and Marty, Episode 3, "The Tides of War," Sept 20 2025), Martin Armstrong forecast gold rising to roughly $5,000-$6,000 by 2030, driven by currency decline amid war and geopolitical turmoil. Gold spot price was about $4,070/oz on July 14, 2026, roughly 68-81% of the way to the $5,000-$6,000 target with over three years left on the clock; the 2030 deadline has not arrived, so the forecast cannot yet be scored hit or miss. | ◷ Pending | Michael Campbell's Money Talks - The Tides of War, Mike and Marty Ep. 3 (Sep 2025) |
| 2025-04-07 | In a CapitalCosm YouTube interview posted April 11, 2025, Martin Armstrong said his Socrates computer "had projected actually April 7th for the target for the low" of the Trump tariff-driven market correction, after which markets would turn back up. The S&P 500 hit its absolute intraday low of the entire tariff selloff on April 7, 2025 at 9:43am ET (4,835.04, briefly touching bear-market territory), then surged 8.5% in ~30 minutes on tariff-pause rumors; that intraday print was never revisited. Closing prices dipped slightly further the next day (April 8 close 4,982.77 vs. April 7 close 5,062.25) before the historic +9.52% rally on April 9 following Trump's tariff-pause announcement, confirming the correction's turn began right around April 7. | ✔ HitSelf-reported (retrospective) | CapitalCosm - Martin Armstrong Reveals INSIDER INTEL on Trump Tariff War (Apr 2025) |
| June-July 2025 | On the May 3, 2025 Talk Digital Network show, Martin Armstrong forecast that crude oil, after an April 2025 turning point, would start rising again during the June-July 2025 period. WTI crude averaged $62.17/bbl in May 2025 (the actual low) before rising to $68.17 in June and $68.39 in July 2025, per EIA spot price data, with a sharp mid-June spike above $77 during the Israel-Iran conflict. | ✔ Hit | Talk Digital Network - Ross Clark: Markets. Martin Armstrong: Alberta Separation, USD, Recession. Rick Ackerman: US Economy (May 2025) |
| ~2032 (interim $75 target already exceeded, Jan 2026) | On Kerry Lutz's Financial Survival Network (Aug 5, 2025), Martin Armstrong forecast silver would break the $50 resistance level and rise to "about $75," as an early leg of a cycle path (2025 directional change, 2026 turning point) building toward a major panic-cycle high around 2029-2032. Silver broke $50 and blew far past $75, hitting an all-time high of $121.62/oz on Jan 29, 2026, before crashing over 30% in about 30 hours to an intraday low just under $75 on Jan 30, 2026; it traded near $57.90 as of July 14, 2026. The near-term $50-to-$75 breakout was confirmed and greatly exceeded, but the ultimate 2029-2032 panic-cycle high Armstrong tied it to has not yet arrived. | ◐ PartialInterim target hit; 2032 leg open | Kerry Lutz's Financial Survival Network - What the Model Sees Next Part 2 (Aug 2025) |
| Q1 2026 (by Mar 31, 2026) | On the Triangle Investor YouTube interview (Dec 15, 2025), Martin Armstrong said in his own words that he warned Washington NATO was going to stage a false flag, expected during the first quarter of 2026, to try to invoke Article 5 and drag the United States into war. No NATO-staged false flag incident occurred and Article 5 was not invoked during Q1 2026 or at any point through mid-July 2026. The only 2026 Article 5 chatter found was Trump's unrelated March/Truth Social suggestion to invoke it over the US southern border, plus repeated warnings from Polish and Ukrainian officials about a possible Russian (not NATO) false flag against a NATO state — the opposite direction from Armstrong's claim. | ✖ Missdeadline passed, verified negative via live search | Triangle Investor - Europe Will Ban Gold & Bitcoin Next + USA Leaving NATO! Martin Armstrong (Dec 2025) |
| By Jan 31, 2026 | On Commodity Culture (Dec 30, 2025), Martin Armstrong forecast that silver would break through the $100-104 psychological resistance zone as early as January 2026. Silver broke through $100/oz on January 23, 2026, then surged to a new all-time high of $121.64/oz by January 29, 2026, clearing both the $100 and $104 resistance levels within the January window he named. | ✔ Hit | Commodity Culture - 'Panic Cycle' Coming in 2026 (Dec 2025) |
| September 2025 | On Tom Luongo's podcast (Episode #224, YouTube upload Oct 12, 2025), Martin Armstrong said his computer model showed no Fed rate change until September 2025. The Fed held its target rate at 4.25%-4.50% through the Jan-Jul 2025 FOMC meetings, then cut it 25bp to 4.00%-4.25% at the September 16-17, 2025 meeting — the first change of the year, arriving exactly in September as called. | ✔ HitPublished after the event | Tom Luongo - Episode #224: Martin Armstrong and Can Trump Avoid the War That's Coming (Oct 2025) |
| Jun 2026 | Armstrong claims, after the fact, that his computer models had forecast both gold's January 2026 record peak (~$5,595–5,608) and the roughly 30% correction that followed, calling it a cyclical "washout" rather than the end of the bull market. Gold did peak near $5,595–5,608/oz around January 28-29, 2026 and fell to an intraday low of about $3,974 on June 24, 2026, a decline of roughly 29% — matching the price move Armstrong's article describes. No independently locatable public article from before the January peak states this specific target/timing, so the "forecast" is verifiable only as Armstrong's own retrospective claim, not as a dated public prediction made in advance. | ✔ HitSelf-reported (retrospective) | Armstrong Economics — "The Computer Was RIGHT About Gold" (June 26, 2026) |
| Feb 2026 | Armstrong forecast gold resistance at $8,500, then $10,000/oz "in the next few years," with silver targeted at $165–$200/oz. As of July 13, 2026, gold trades around $4,064/oz and silver around $58.85/oz, both far below the stated targets. The "next few years" window from the February 2026 call has not elapsed, so the outcome remains pending. | ◷ PendingReported (secondhand) | Canadian Mining Report, citing Feb 3, 2026 USAWatchdog interview with Martin Armstrong (syndicated via ZeroHedge Feb 5, 2026) |
| Dec 31, 2026 | Armstrong forecast the Iran war would last through the rest of 2026 and could push US gasoline prices as high as $9/gallon amid an unfolding sovereign debt crisis. On May 9, 2026, Armstrong told USAWatchdog's Greg Hunter the Iran war "will last the rest of 2026" and gasoline "could hit $9 a gallon." As of July 14, 2026 the US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed (fighting resumed July 8-9) but the AAA national gas average is $3.86/gallon, well short of $9, with the year-end deadline still open. | ◷ Pending | USAWatchdog.com - "Iran Bombs UAE to Trigger Financial Meltdown - Martin Armstrong" (Greg Hunter interview, May 9, 2026) |
| Jun 27, 2026 - 2027 | Armstrong (Armstrong Economics) said in a June 27, 2026 USAWatchdog interview: "There is going to be no peace deal in Iran... for the rest of this year going into 2027," citing conflicting Trump/Netanyahu incentives. The brief US-Iran ceasefire (Islamabad Memorandum, signed June 19) collapsed by July 8, 2026, when Trump declared it over; active strikes resumed, with CNN and Al Jazeera reporting US strikes on 80-140+ Iranian targets July 7-13 and Iran's IRGC closing the Strait of Hormuz after tanker attacks. As of July 14, 2026 there is no peace deal, tracking consistent with Armstrong's call, but the stated window runs through 2027 so the verdict is not yet final. | ◷ Pending | USAWatchdog (Armstrong Economics interview) |
| made 2026-06-27; window: after July 2026 | Armstrong said "oil is going to take off again after a July low," in a June 27, 2026 USAWatchdog interview. WTI fell to roughly $68-69/bbl in early July 2026, then rallied to $79.56/bbl by July 14 amid escalating US-Iran conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. The stated window ("after July 2026") has not closed, so a durable post-July-low takeoff is not yet confirmable. | ◷ PendingConfounded by events | USAWatchdog (Armstrong interview, syndicated, confirmed as Armstrong Economics' Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com/Socrates references) |
| Jun 27, 2026 to Aug 2026 | Armstrong said gold "may be bottoming this week... heading up through August" 2026, in a June 27, 2026 USAWatchdog interview. On June 27, 2026, Armstrong told USAWatchdog gold "may be bottoming this week... heading up through August." By July 14, 2026 gold opened near its lowest level since late June (~$4,006-4,070/oz per Yahoo Finance/CNBC) as Iran-crisis tensions pushed prices down, the opposite of an immediate bottom, though the August rally window remains open. | ◷ PendingPartly hedged | USAWatchdog (Greg Hunter interview with Martin Armstrong) |
| post-June 2026 | "WW3 After June - China Will Invade Taiwan" — interview claiming Armstrong's war-cycle model points to China, not Russia, as the WWIII flashpoint, with Taiwan invasion risk escalating after June 2026. As of July 14, 2026, no Chinese invasion of Taiwan has occurred; US think-tank and press assessments (AEI, CNN, ASPI) describe Beijing pursuing coercion short of invasion, with analysts judging an amphibious assault unlikely before year-end. Window (post-June 2026, with Armstrong elsewhere flagging August as the "real aggressive timeline") remains open. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics (public blog, "Interview: WW3 After June- China Will Invade Taiwan," posted Jun 6, 2026, byline Martin Armstrong) |
| Feb 2026 | In a Jan 5, 2026 CapitalCosm interview ("SILVER Buyers! Prepare for April"), Martin Armstrong said his computer (Socrates) was "showing... high volatility coming in the beginning of February" 2026, distinct from a separate geopolitical-war concern he pegged to April. Volatility did spike at the start of February 2026: US equities sold off hard on Feb 4-5 (S&P 500 -1.23% to 6,798.40, Nasdaq -1.59%, Dow -1.2%), Bitcoin had one of its fastest single-day crashes on record, and gold/silver stayed extremely volatile after their late-January price crash. Armstrong himself reiterated the call independently, telling USAWatchdog on Feb 4, 2026, "This is where the volatility starts kicking in." | ✔ HitDownloaded the actual YouTube captions (yt-dlp) to chec... | CapitalCosm - SILVER Buyers! Prepare for April (Jan 2026) |
| April 2026 | In a Jan 5, 2026 CapitalCosm interview ("SILVER Buyers! Prepare for April"), Armstrong said in his own words, "I'm more concerned about geopolitical events... expanding around April. You got gold and silver rising" — forecasting a war-risk escalation around April 2026 that would push gold and silver higher. Geopolitical risk did expand into April: the Iran war (escalating since late Feb 2026) climaxed with a U.S.-brokered ceasefire and Iran's 10-point plan announced April 7-8, 2026 (Al Jazeera, CNN, Britannica, Wikipedia "2026 Iran war ceasefire"). Gold traded above $4,800/oz and silver jumped nearly 7% to about $77/oz on April 8 as the news broke, with silver climbing further to roughly $81/oz by April 17 before easing back to ~$74 by month-end (StatMuse/Fortune data). | ✔ Hit | CapitalCosm - SILVER Buyers! Prepare for April (Jan 2026) |
| 2032 | On CapitalCosm's Jan 5, 2026 interview, responding directly to a viewer's question about when international relations between "major players i.e. US and China and to some extent Russia" would normalize, Martin Armstrong said: "so I don't see that any normalization before 2032 at at best." As of July 2026, no normalization has occurred: US-China relations only partially stabilized via late-2025 trade agreements while tensions persist over Taiwan, and China-Russia military/economic ties have deepened amid the Ukraine war. The 2032 window remains open. | ◷ PendingTIMESTAMP CORRECTION NEEDED: candidate cites [67:24] bu... | CapitalCosm - SILVER Buyers! Prepare for April (Jan 2026) |
| long-standing | 51.6-year cycle concludes in 2032 with a 1930s-style depression. Window not yet closed. | ◷ Pending | MoneyWeek |
One signup, everything we track: verdict alerts the moment a call hits or misses, the daily market numbers, the Sunday recap, and a heads-up when a forecast enters its final 30 days. Unsubscribe anytime.
Rules this tracker follows, in full:
Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model (ECM) — the engine behind most calls on this page — runs on an 8.6-year wave. Why 8.6? He tallied 26 financial panics between 1683 and 1907, divided 224 years by 26, and got 8.6 — then noticed 8.6 years is 3,141 days: pi × 1000. Hence the nickname, and this site’s name.
Believers point to the dated hits in the table above. Critics note the misses in the same table, and Cornell economist Karel Mertens has called the cycle’s fit to past recessions coincidental — "comparable to numerology." This site doesn’t referee the theory; it scores the dated calls the model produces. The table is the argument.
Not to be confused with: the Bitcoin "Pi Cycle Top" indicator — a crypto moving-average crossover tool that shares the name and nothing else.
It’s genuinely mixed, which is why a ledger is useful. His reported early calls (1987, the 1989 Nikkei, February 2007) built the legend; his dated public calls since 2008 include several documented misses (the 2009 Dow-4,000 target, the October 1, 2015 "Big Bang"). Filter the table above and read the sources — that’s the point of this site.
An American economic forecaster, developer of the Economic Confidence Model (a 51.6-year cycle theory), and founder of Armstrong Economics. He was also convicted in the Princeton Economics case — he pleaded guilty to conspiracy and spent roughly 11 years in custody (contempt plus sentence) before release in 2011. His following remained loyal through it; the 2014 documentary The Forecaster tells his side.
No. Independent, unaffiliated, and built only from public sources. Nothing here is financial advice.