Every dated, publicly documented forecast by Martin Armstrong (Armstrong Economics) — scored against what actually happened, with a source link on every row. No paywalled content. No affiliation.
Last updated: July 13, 2026 · 17 tracked calls
| Made | Prediction & outcome | Verdict | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | October 1987 crash — Economic Confidence Model turning point at 1987.8. The crash happened (Black Monday, Oct 19, 1987). The call is attributed to Armstrong by himself and clients; no contemporaneous public document verifies it independently. | ✔ HitReported (secondhand) | MoneyWeek |
| 1989 | Collapse of the Japanese Nikkei. The Nikkei peaked Dec 1989 and entered a multi-decade decline. Attribution rests on later reporting, not a contemporaneous public document. | ✔ HitReported (secondhand) | MoneyWeek |
| ≤1996 | Dow 6,000 by cycle target 1996.4. The Dow crossed 6,000 in October 1996. The claim is documented in his own 1999 essay after the fact, not in a contemporaneous public record. | ✔ HitSelf-reported (retrospective) | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| ≤1998 | Dow 10,000 for 1998. The 1998 high was roughly 9,400; the Dow first closed above 10,000 in March 1999 — months past the stated year. | ◐ PartialSelf-reported (retrospective) | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| 1998 | ECM peak at 1998.55 (July 20, 1998) — top in market liquidity and volume, with Russia's troubles hitting Western markets. US equities peaked July 17–20, 1998, then fell sharply as Russia defaulted and Long-Term Capital Management imploded. Caveat: his contemporaneous Financial Times quote (June 27, 1998) warned Russia would damage Europe; "predicted the collapse itself" is his later retelling. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| 1999 | Business-cycle decline running into ECM 2002.85 (November 8, 2002). The dot-com bear market bottomed October 9, 2002 — about four weeks before the model date. His accompanying scenario ("a high in 2002/2003... may be followed by a crash") was hedged and didn't play out; the dated part nearly did. | ◐ Partial | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| 1999 | "Periods of economic strife will begin to grow in intensity... moving into 2007.15" (Feb 26–27, 2007). February 27, 2007 brought the sharp global selloff (the Shanghai-triggered correction) that opened the pre-crisis jitters; MoneyWeek reported he called the turn "to the very date." The 2007.15 date was published on his own site in 1999 — in advance. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics (1999) |
| 2007 | Bullish 2008: market rebound, housing recovery, oil above $100, gold over $2,000. Oil did cross $100 in early 2008 (component hit). But 2008 brought the global financial crisis — equities collapsed, housing worsened, and gold didn't reach $2,000 until 2020. | ✖ MissOne component (oil) correct | MoneyWeek |
| Dec 2008 | DJIA to bottom near 4,000, with the low arriving April–June 2009. The bear-market low was 6,440 on March 9, 2009 — roughly 2,440 points above the target and earlier than the stated window. | ✖ Miss | CXO Advisory |
| May 2009 | New DJIA low in September–October 2009. No low occurred in that window; the market kept rallying. | ✖ Miss | CXO Advisory |
| Aug 2009 | Rally into January 2010, then a major low mid-2011 and a major high late 2015. CXO graded the short-term rally call "essentially correct"; the mid-2011 low loosely rhymes with the Aug 2011 selloff, while "major high late 2015" did not mark a cycle top. | ◐ Partial | CXO Advisory |
| 2007 | "Next major slump" beginning June 18, 2011. A major slump did occur in 2011 — but in August (US downgrade / debt-ceiling crisis), not on the named June date. | ◐ PartialRight year, wrong date | MoneyWeek |
| 2011–13 | Gold as high as $5,000/oz in the cycle ahead. Gold peaked at $1,920 in September 2011 and spent the following four years falling; $5,000 was never approached in that cycle. | ✖ MissAs characterized by Financial Sense | Financial Sense |
| 2011–15 | Gold correcting into a cycle low at ECM 2015.75 (October 1, 2015), then turning back up. Gold's secular low ($1,046) printed in early December 2015 — about nine weeks after the model date — and a multi-year advance followed. | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Indigo Precious Metals |
| pre-2015 | "Big Bang" — sovereign debt crisis turning point on October 1, 2015 (ECM 2015.75). No sovereign debt crisis began on or around that date. One of his most heavily promoted dated calls. | ✖ Miss | Tactical Investor |
| Dec 2021 | Dow headed to 40,000. The DJIA crossed 40,000 in May 2024. The interview framed it directionally; no hard deadline was stated, so the hit is on level, not timing. | ✔ HitNo stated deadline | Financial Sense |
| long-standing | 51.6-year cycle concludes in 2032 with a 1930s-style depression. Window not yet closed. | ◷ Pending | MoneyWeek |
Rules this tracker follows, in full:
Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model (ECM) — the engine behind most calls on this page — runs on an 8.6-year wave. Why 8.6? He tallied 26 financial panics between 1683 and 1907, divided 224 years by 26, and got 8.6 — then noticed 8.6 years is 3,141 days: pi × 1000. Hence the nickname, and this site's name.
Believers point to the dated hits in the table above. Critics note the misses in the same table, and Cornell economist Karel Mertens has called the cycle's fit to past recessions coincidental — "comparable to numerology." This site doesn't referee the theory; it scores the dated calls the model produces. The table is the argument.
Not to be confused with: the Bitcoin "Pi Cycle Top" indicator — a crypto moving-average crossover tool that shares the name and nothing else.
It's genuinely mixed, which is why a ledger is useful. His reported early calls (1987, the 1989 Nikkei, February 2007) built the legend; his dated public calls since 2008 include several documented misses (the 2009 Dow-4,000 target, the October 1, 2015 "Big Bang"). Filter the table above and read the sources — that's the point of this site.
An American economic forecaster, developer of the Economic Confidence Model (a 51.6-year cycle theory), and founder of Armstrong Economics. He was also convicted in the Princeton Economics case — he pleaded guilty to conspiracy and spent roughly 11 years in custody (contempt plus sentence) before release in 2011. His following remained loyal through it; the 2014 documentary The Forecaster tells his side.
No. Independent, unaffiliated, and built only from public sources. Nothing here is financial advice.