ECM turning points, sovereign-debt-crisis calls, recession, inflation, interest-rate and currency forecasts — each dated, scored against what happened, and sourced. No affiliation.
Last updated: July 17, 2026 · 20 tracked calls
Independent tracker · Not affiliated with Armstrong Economics · Not financial advice
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Positions are calendar arithmetic from Armstrong’s published 8.6-year constant (3,141 days ≈ π×1000) and the interval series in his 1999 essay — model math, not forecasts, and not an endorsement of the model.
| Made | Prediction & outcome | Verdict | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2015 | Armstrong said his Economic Confidence Model's pi-cycle turn at 2015.75 (~October 1, 2015) — first flagged in 1985 — would mark the sovereign debt crisis beginning to "really surface," calling it "a major change in trend of monumental proportion." No sovereign-debt crisis or crash occurred around the Oct 1, 2015 turn date; the S&P 500 instead rose 1.9% that day to close at 1,920.03. Armstrong later recharacterized 2015.75 in a Nov 3, 2019 post as merely "the START... NOT THE END" of a multi-year trend rather than a discrete crisis event. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics, "Debt, Debt, & More Debt: 2015.75" (published Sept 26, 2015) |
| 2016.202 (~Mar 13-14, 2016) | In a 2011 report ("The Rise and Fall of the Euro"), Armstrong forecast a collapse in confidence in the euro at cycle date 2016.202 — roughly March 13-14, 2016, about 17.2 years after the euro's Jan 1, 1999 launch. No euro collapse occurred around March 2016; EUR/USD traded in roughly the $1.09-$1.14 range that month (low 1.0868 on March 1, high 1.1381 on March 31), and the eurozone remained intact with no breakup or currency collapse. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics, "Is The Pending Euro Collapse On Target From Our 2011 Forecast Of 2016.202?" (Feb 17, 2016) |
| 2015 | Armstrong forecast the euro's 2015 short-term trading range would run from parity (1.00) with the dollar up to about 1.16-1.17, calling parity "the best we should see short-term." The euro never reached parity in 2015 — EUR/USD bottomed around $1.05 in mid-March 2015 and closed the year near $1.09. The euro did not actually hit parity with the dollar until July 2022, roughly seven years later. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics, "Euro & Par" (April 2, 2015) |
| Jan 2020 | Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model pointed to a major turning point around January 2020, forecasting a global shift in public confidence, a new inflationary wave, and declining trust in governments and central banks. Global equity markets kept climbing into January 2020 (Dow record 29,373 on Jan 17, 2020) and topped in mid-February (S&P 500 record close 3,386 on Feb 19, 2020) before crashing over 30% into the March 23, 2020 COVID panic low -- a sharp confidence break did land close to the stated window. But it was driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, not the predicted inflationary wave or loss of trust in government/central banks (inflation didn't surge until 2021-22, and central banks were initially credited for stimulus, not distrusted). | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics - "The Great Alignment & 2020" (July 16, 2019) |
| after 2032 (open window) | Armstrong forecasts China will become "the financial capital of the world" after 2032, once continual Western borrowing breaks confidence in the US/Europe — a claim tied to his ECM cycle-turn date, not a price or index level. Armstrong has publicly stated China becomes the world's financial capital only "after 2032," contingent on Western sovereign-debt confidence breaking first; he has repeated the call across public posts/interviews since at least 2019. The post-2032 window has not opened as of July 14, 2026, so it cannot yet be scored hit/miss. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics — "China: The Financial Capital Of The World After 2032" |
| 2020-2022 | Armstrong claimed COVID lockdowns would produce a Great Depression worse than the 1930s with "NO HOPE IN HELL" of recovery, forecasting a "crash and burn into 2022." Equity markets staged a V-shaped recovery instead: the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both closed 2020 at then-record highs after the March 2020 low, and the US economy posted strong growth through 2021 with no depression materializing in the 2020-2022 window. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics - "The 2020-2022 Great Depression Coming To Neighborhood Near You!" (April 19, 2020) |
| 2020 | Armstrong forecast a "Monetary Crisis Cycle" running into 2021-2022, driving inflation via commodity shortages as capital fled collapsing government bond markets into equities. US CPI inflation surged to a 9.1% year-over-year peak in June 2022 (BLS), with commodity and supply-chain shortages widely cited as key drivers, matching the inflation/commodity component of the call. But government bond markets did not collapse via failed issuance as described, and equities fell sharply in 2022 (S&P 500 down roughly 19%) rather than benefiting from a capital flight out of bonds. | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics - "Inflation Into 2021" (June 4, 2020) |
| Deadline: end of 2022 | Armstrong predicted "much higher inflation and much higher interest rates by the end of 2022." Rates hit: the Fed funds target range rose from 0-0.25% (Jan 2022) to 4.25-4.50% (Dec 2022). Inflation missed: CPI fell from 7.0% YoY (Dec 2021) to 6.5% YoY (Dec 2022) by the stated deadline, after peaking at 9.1% in June 2022 — lower, not "much higher," than when the call was made. | ◐ Partial | USAWatchdog — "New World Order Desperate as Plan Falls Apart – Martin Armstrong" (Feb 19, 2022) |
| January 2023 | Armstrong forecast January 2023 as "the major turning point for the entire year," predicting the US dollar would rise along with gold and other tangible assets, plus rising interest rates and inflation. Gold did rise as forecast (~$1,827 to ~$1,926/oz over January 2023), but the dollar moved the opposite direction (NY Fed: broad trade-weighted dollar index depreciated 1.6% in Q1 2023; euro +1.3% vs. dollar; CNBC reported the dollar "slumping" through mid-January) and CPI inflation kept cooling rather than rising (6.5% to 6.4% YoY). A mixed call: only the gold component was correct. | ◐ Partial | Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog - "Nightmare Fall of United States – Martin Armstrong" (Dec 17, 2022) |
| May 2024 | Armstrong forecast in November 2023 that the May 7, 2024 (2024.35) ECM turning point would mark the point where a brewing global Sovereign Debt Crisis "comes to a head," with China already dumping US debt and a market crash to follow once buyers for US debt disappear. As of July 2026, more than two years past the May 7, 2024 turning point, no sovereign-debt-driven market crash has occurred; Treasury auctions have continued to clear, though 2026 brought weaker demand and higher yields (10-year near 4.6%, 30-year briefly above 5%) and mounting fiscal-crisis commentary, including further warnings from Armstrong himself. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics – "Beware May 7th, 2024" (Nov 27, 2023) |
| 2023 | In March 2023 Armstrong said the Ukraine war was already producing a "Financial Crisis of 2023," with cyclical war and financial-crisis models colliding around an April 10 ECM turning point into what he called a "two-prong panic of unprecedented significance." The March 2023 regional-bank stress (SVB, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse) was contained within weeks and no broader financial crisis or panic followed; the S&P 500 rose roughly 24% (price) over 2023 instead. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics — "Financial Crisis Of 2023" (public blog, Mar 17, 2023) |
| Mar 2025 | Armstrong's computer model forecast PANIC Cycles hitting globally in 2026, with nearly half of OECD/emerging-market government debt maturing by 2027, pointing to a sovereign-debt crisis window through 2027. As of July 2026, sovereign-debt stress is visible (Japan's bond market cracked in late January 2026, the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly topped 5% in May 2026, and Jamie Dimon warned of a coming "bond crisis"), and Armstrong himself says the crisis "has already begun," but no global panic-level sovereign-debt crash has been confirmed. The 2025-2027 window remains open. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics, "Sovereign Debt Crisis Unfolding" (Mar 20, 2025) |
| 2026-2028 (pending) | Armstrong predicted Germany was heading into "a very serious debt crisis for 20-26" as part of a broader European sovereign-debt/political crisis running through the late 2020s. As of July 2026 no full-blown German sovereign-debt crisis has hit, but real strain has emerged: German bond auctions came close to failing on July 1 and again in early July 2026 (a 10-year Bund auction placed only ~€3.9bn of a planned €6bn, bid-to-cover 0.7), and Scope Ratings warned Germany must stabilize its debt trajectory to keep its AAA rating given ~4%-of-GDP deficits projected through 2030. The 2026-2028 window Armstrong specified is still running, so the call is unresolved rather than confirmed or falsified. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics, "Sovereign Debt Crisis Unfolding" (Mar 20, 2025) |
| March 2026 | Armstrong repeatedly forecast (across at least four interviews, Aug-Dec 2025) that Europe would cancel physical cash and force a CBDC transition by January-March 2026, alongside capital controls. Euro cash remains legal tender with no cancellation announced. The European Commission only published its digital-euro framework on July 11, 2026; the ECB’s own roadmap targets a pilot in H2 2027 and possible issuance in 2029 — years past the claimed deadline. | ✖ Miss | CapitalCosm - Insider Sources Preparing For World War 3 in 2026 (Aug 2025) |
| By Dec 2028 | On the Metals and Miners YouTube channel (Mar 9, 2025), Martin Armstrong said his computer model shows the global recession that began turning down in May 2024 "won't bottom until probably 2028," with Europe seeing more of a depression and the US a milder recessionary trend. Deadline (Dec 31, 2028) has not arrived — as of July 2026 the window is still open. Armstrong Economics' own "The Economy Into 2028" forecast page and multiple other 2024-2026 interviews (USAWatchdog, Palisades Radio) repeat the same 2028-bottom / Europe-depression / US-recession framing, confirming this is a stable, repeated forecast tied to his Economic Confidence Model rather than an offhand remark, but no outcome data exists yet. | ◷ Pendingpending — revisit after 2028-12-31; verify against actu... | Metals and Miners - Martin Armstrong: War: US and China, EU, Ukr, Rus, Gold flows (Mar 2025) |
| By 2027-2028 (deadline used: Dec 31, 2028) | On the Metals and Miners YouTube channel (Mar 2025), Martin Armstrong said his computer model's "minimum realistic" projection is that the 30-year Treasury bond yield rises to 5%, and more probably as high as 8%, by 2027-2028. The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5% in a bond auction on May 13, 2026 (awarded at 5.046%, first time above 5% since 2007) and briefly hit 5.197% intraday on May 19, 2026 (per CNBC/CNN), before settling around 5.10% as of July 14, 2026 (Trading Economics). That clears Armstrong's "minimum realistic" floor more than a year ahead of his stated 2027-2028 window; his higher 8% figure has not been reached. | ◐ Partial5% floor cleared early; 8% target open to 2028 | Metals and Miners - WAR: US and China, EU, Ukr, Rus, Gold flows, market impacts (Mar 2025) |
| May 2026 | On Coffee and a Mike (Jul 10, 2025), Martin Armstrong said "our computer is showing a panic cycle for May of next year" (May 2026) and said Powell was "keeping rates steady mainly because he knows war is coming." May 2026 did show real stress -- April CPI (released May 13) hit 4.2%, its highest in three years, oil rose on stalled US-Iran talks, and retail long positioning on the Dow collapsed from 61% to 30% between May 11-25 -- but there was no crash or panic-level event in May itself; the acute sell-off (VIX up 40% in a day, $1.3T wiped from semiconductors, SOX's worst drop since the March 2020 COVID crash) hit on June 5, 2026, a month after his window. Separately, the Fed had held rates steady since its April 29 meeting (no May FOMC meeting occurs), with Powell serving as chair pro tempore until Kevin Warsh was sworn in as new Fed chair on May 22, 2026. | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Coffee and a Mike (Michael Farris) - 2032: Government Collapse and the Power of War (Jul 2025) |
| September 2025 | On Tom Luongo's podcast (Episode #224, YouTube upload Oct 12, 2025), Martin Armstrong said his computer model showed no Fed rate change until September 2025. The Fed held its target rate at 4.25%-4.50% through the Jan-Jul 2025 FOMC meetings, then cut it 25bp to 4.00%-4.25% at the September 16-17, 2025 meeting — the first change of the year, arriving exactly in September as called. | ✔ HitPublished after the event | Tom Luongo - Episode #224: Martin Armstrong and Can Trump Avoid the War That's Coming (Oct 2025) |
| Feb 2026 | In a Jan 5, 2026 CapitalCosm interview ("SILVER Buyers! Prepare for April"), Martin Armstrong said his computer (Socrates) was "showing... high volatility coming in the beginning of February" 2026, distinct from a separate geopolitical-war concern he pegged to April. Volatility did spike at the start of February 2026: US equities sold off hard on Feb 4-5 (S&P 500 -1.23% to 6,798.40, Nasdaq -1.59%, Dow -1.2%), Bitcoin had one of its fastest single-day crashes on record, and gold/silver stayed extremely volatile after their late-January price crash. Armstrong himself reiterated the call independently, telling USAWatchdog on Feb 4, 2026, "This is where the volatility starts kicking in." | ✔ HitDownloaded the actual YouTube captions (yt-dlp) to chec... | CapitalCosm - SILVER Buyers! Prepare for April (Jan 2026) |
| long-standing | 51.6-year cycle concludes in 2032 with a 1930s-style depression. Window not yet closed. | ◷ Pending | MoneyWeek |
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Rules this tracker follows, in full:
Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model (ECM) — the engine behind most calls on this page — runs on an 8.6-year wave. Why 8.6? He tallied 26 financial panics between 1683 and 1907, divided 224 years by 26, and got 8.6 — then noticed 8.6 years is 3,141 days: pi × 1000. Hence the nickname, and this site’s name.
Believers point to the dated hits in the table above. Critics note the misses in the same table, and Cornell economist Karel Mertens has called the cycle’s fit to past recessions coincidental — "comparable to numerology." This site doesn’t referee the theory; it scores the dated calls the model produces. The table is the argument.
Not to be confused with: the Bitcoin "Pi Cycle Top" indicator — a crypto moving-average crossover tool that shares the name and nothing else.
It’s genuinely mixed, which is why a ledger is useful. His reported early calls (1987, the 1989 Nikkei, February 2007) built the legend; his dated public calls since 2008 include several documented misses (the 2009 Dow-4,000 target, the October 1, 2015 "Big Bang"). Filter the table above and read the sources — that’s the point of this site.
An American economic forecaster, developer of the Economic Confidence Model (a 51.6-year cycle theory), and founder of Armstrong Economics. He was also convicted in the Princeton Economics case — he pleaded guilty to conspiracy and spent roughly 11 years in custody (contempt plus sentence) before release in 2011. His following remained loyal through it; the 2014 documentary The Forecaster tells his side.
No. Independent, unaffiliated, and built only from public sources. Nothing here is financial advice.