War Cycle, election, civil-unrest and geopolitical calls — Ukraine, Iran, China, the EU — scored against events, with a source link on every row. Public sources only. No affiliation.
Last updated: July 17, 2026 · 25 tracked calls
Independent tracker · Not affiliated with Armstrong Economics · Not financial advice
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Positions are calendar arithmetic from Armstrong’s published 8.6-year constant (3,141 days ≈ π×1000) and the interval series in his 1999 essay — model math, not forecasts, and not an endorsement of the model.
| Made | Prediction & outcome | Verdict | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | On Dec 3, 2013, Armstrong flagged Ukraine as the country to watch, writing the War Cycle turns up in 2014 and that Ukraine could become the focal point of rising tensions with Russia "smelling the blood of a weak Europe and United States." Euromaidan protests (already underway when he wrote this) escalated through the winter, President Yanukovych was ousted on Feb 22, 2014, and Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014, followed by war in the Donbas -- Ukraine became the year's dominant geopolitical flashpoint exactly as he flagged. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics blog, "Ukraine Maybe The Most Important Country To Watch" (Dec 3, 2013) |
| 2017-2018 | Armstrong wrote that the War Cycle's civil-unrest component turned in 2014, paralleling the 1964 turn that preceded the 1960s riots, and that a renewed peak in race riots "will not arrive before 2017-2018." No comparable nationwide race-riot peak occurred in 2017-2018 (Charlottesville, Aug. 2017, was the closest notable flashpoint but far smaller in scale). The next major U.S. civil-unrest wave was the May-June 2020 George Floyd protests, widely described as the largest since 1968, arriving roughly two to three years after Armstrong's stated window. | ✖ MissTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics blog, "Are We On The Verge Of Renewed Race Riots With The Turn In The War Cycle In 2014?" (Aug 17, 2014) |
| Aug 2015 | In an Aug 17, 2015 blog post, Armstrong said his computer model forecast a "non-politician era for 2016," citing Trump and Carson as far ahead of the field (Bush "holding on to 5%") more than a year before the election. Trump won the November 8, 2016 general election over Hillary Clinton. Carson, the other "non-politician" Armstrong named as a front-runner, dropped out of the primary in March 2016 without winning any state. | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics, "The Election of 2016" (Aug 17, 2015) |
| 2016 | Armstrong said his "War Cycle" (which turned up in 2014) pointed to escalating US-Russia confrontation over Ukraine and Syria, intensifying into 2020. US-Russia tensions did rise through the period (Ukraine's low-grade conflict, Syria proxy fighting, election-interference sanctions) but did not erupt into direct war by 2020 as the cited window implied. The major escalation Armstrong's model seemed to anticipate — Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine — didn't occur until February 24, 2022, about two years past the stated 2020 window. | ◐ PartialTiming near-miss | Armstrong Economics blog, "War Cycle On Target - Sad To Say" (Oct 11, 2016) |
| 2016 | Armstrong wrote (Feb 22, 2016) that Britain would break from the EU in 2016, tying the timing to the 8.6-year cycle from Britain's 1973 EU entry (43 years = 2016) and to his "Big Bang" turn starting 2015.75 — a call he said he'd first given at a 1999 seminar ("not before 2016"). The UK held its Brexit referendum on June 23, 2016, and voted to Leave 51.9%-48.1%, landing squarely in the 2016 window Armstrong specified four months earlier. (The UK's actual legal exit did not occur until January 31, 2020, but Armstrong's dated call was about the 2016 timing/break, not the formal departure date.) | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics, "Brexit – On Schedule" (Feb 22, 2016) |
| 2027 | Armstrong's War Cycle model flagged a possible peak risk of broader international war "as early as 2027," naming 2024-2027 as the period of concern. As of July 2026, no broader international war (WWIII-scale) has materialized; the stated 2024-2027 window remains open with roughly six months left. Armstrong Economics has continued reiterating the 2026-2027 war-cycle/panic-cycle risk in subsequent posts through 2026. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics, "World War III - 2024-2027?" (Jun 19, 2019) |
| 2022 | Armstrong predicted the next disease event to reach true pandemic-level severity — not the then-emerging coronavirus — would hit in 2022, potentially killing 65-100 million, based on a 13/16-year disease cycle tied to the solar minimum. The novel coronavirus itself was declared a global pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020, just six weeks after this post, with the heaviest death tolls in 2020-2021, not 2022. Cumulative COVID-19 deaths never approached 65-100 million in any single year, including 2022 (official global cumulative counts stayed around 6-7 million). | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics – "The Disease Cycle Turned Up – Next Peak 2022" (Jan 26, 2020) |
| Mar 2020 | In a March 3, 2020 post, Armstrong cited an "international and Chinese expert" team's finding that China's coronavirus epidemic had already peaked between January 23 and February 2, 2020, and was declining since, using this to argue media coverage of the outbreak was overblown panic. WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic eight days later (March 11, 2020), and confirmed cases and deaths grew worldwide for years, not weeks. China itself saw repeated fresh outbreaks and prolonged lockdowns well past early 2020 (including Shanghai's citywide lockdown in 2022), so even limited to China the "peaked and declining" call did not hold up. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics - "Coronavirus Panic" |
| Nov 2020 | Armstrong said his computer model showed Trump "should win" the 2020 election, while separately warning unverified mail-in voting would make it the most corrupt election in American history and that neither side would accept a loss. Biden defeated Trump in the November 3, 2020 election, 306-232 in the Electoral College and by roughly 7 million votes nationally; Trump did not win. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics, "The 2020 Election" (May 22, 2020) |
| 2023 | Armstrong's computer model forecast civil unrest turning upward from 2014, becoming "critical" in 2023 (tied to Critical Race Theory-driven tension) and escalating into 2032, with a "great financial upheaval" by 2028. 2023 saw ~29,500 US protest events (Crowd Counting Consortium) but violence remained historically low — only 0.3% of events had injuries and 3 protester deaths, far below 2020's George Floyd-era unrest (472 injury events, $1-2B in damage). No "critical" escalation of civil unrest occurred in 2023 relative to 2020. | ✖ Miss | Armstrong Economics, "Why The US Will Collapse Under Civil Unrest" (Dec 19, 2022) |
| 2023 / January 2023 | Armstrong predicted "2023 will be the year from Hell" with civil unrest worsening and "full blown war next year" (2023), plus European capital rushing into the US by January 2023 as the Ukraine crisis escalated. 2023 saw no broad multinational "full blown war" — the Ukraine war continued at similar intensity and the Israel-Hamas war only began in October 2023, not matching the predicted general escalation, and no evidence surfaced of a January 2023 European-capital-flight-to-US event at the scale described. | ✖ Miss | Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog — "Banking Crisis Will Start in Europe – Martin Armstrong" (Sep 24, 2022) |
| Nov 2024 | In a June 2024 interview titled "Trump Wins 2024 — Chaos to Follow," Armstrong forecast a Trump election victory (based on his Socrates model showing a global shift to the right) alongside significant political/social turmoil after the win. Trump won the November 5, 2024 election as forecast. The following year brought substantial political conflict — mass federal layoffs and DOGE-driven agency upheaval, tariff-fueled market volatility, immigration-enforcement unrest, and large nationwide protests (e.g. the June 2025 "No Kings" demonstrations) — consistent with the "chaos to follow" framing. | ✔ Hit | Armstrong Economics, "Interview: Trump Wins 2024 — Chaos To Follow" (posted Jun 23, 2024; interview with Kerry Lutz's Financial Survival Network, aired ~Jun 21, 2024) |
| 2024.679 (Sept 2024) | Armstrong warned the "Civil War Cycle" turned up on 2024.679 (Sept 4/5, 2024), that neither side would accept the 2024 election result, that it might be the last US election ever, and that the country risked roughly two years of civil war into 2026 with the military splitting. The November 2024 election was held on schedule, certified by Congress on January 6, 2025, and followed by a peaceful transfer of power at inauguration on January 20, 2025. As of July 2026 there has been no civil war, no military split, and no cancellation of elections. | ✖ MissSelf-reported (retrospective) | Armstrong Economics blog, "Will The US Go Into Civil War 2025-2026? Will 2024 Be The Last Election?" |
| 2026 (2027-2029) | Armstrong forecast (via Socrates) that the international war cycle, building since 2022, peaks in 2026 with a "Panic Cycle" and escalates further into 2027-2028, with a separate civil-unrest cycle peaking in 2028/2029. The window is still open: as of July 13, 2026, geopolitical tension (Russia-Ukraine war continuing, European rearmament debates, China-Taiwan friction) is elevated but no independently verifiable "panic cycle" peak or new major war has been confirmed to have occurred. 2027-2028 escalation and the 2028/2029 civil-unrest peak are entirely unresolved future windows. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics - "The Cycle Of War & Revolution" (Sept 1, 2025) |
| Mar 2025 | Armstrong said the EU's push to fund an army and prepare for war was "a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029." As of July 2026 the EU remains intact and functioning (Ireland took the rotating Council presidency July 1, 2026; routine legislative activity continues). The 2029 deadline has not yet arrived. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics, "Sovereign Debt Crisis Unfolding" (Mar 20, 2025) |
| 2026 | Armstrong predicted a "panic cycle" rapidly approaching the world in 2026, with the EU heading for a USSR-style breakup as political ideology overrides economic logic among European elites. As of July 13, 2026 no EU/eurozone collapse or breakup has occurred — the EU is operating normally (Ireland took the rotating Council presidency July 1, 2026; routine sanctions and policy business continuing). The stated 2026 window remains open, so this is unresolved. | ◷ PendingReported (secondhand) | Commodity Culture podcast (public interview with Martin Armstrong), published Dec 30, 2025, "'Panic Cycle' Coming in 2026 - 'It's Europe's Turn' to Collapse" |
| 2025-08-18 (target/trigger date) | Armstrong pinpointed August 18, 2025 as the trigger date for a "Panic Cycle" tied to war, escalating into 2026. Markets showed no panic on the pinpointed date: the S&P 500 fell just 0.3% to 6,449.80 on Aug 18, 2025, with the VIX at a calm 15.09, an ordinary day dominated by the Trump-Putin Alaska summit. Eleven months later, no market or war event is publicly tied to that specific date. | ✖ Miss | USAWatchdog (Greg Hunter interview with Martin Armstrong) |
| By 2028 | In the "Iron Wire Report" interview with Will Dove (published June 8, 2025), Armstrong said that even if Trump pulls the US out of NATO, his computer model "is not very bullish on even having an election by 28" — i.e., his model is not confident the US will hold a presidential election by 2028. As of July 14, 2026, the 2028 US presidential election remains on the normal constitutional schedule for November 2028, with no official cancellation, postponement, or credible mechanism to skip it reported anywhere. The prediction's window (2028) has not yet arrived, so this cannot be scored hit/miss yet. | ◷ Pending | Martin Armstrong - The End of Canada | Interview with Will Dove of Iron Wire Report (Jun 2025) |
| By Dec 31, 2030 | On the Dialogue Works interview "This Is How World War III Starts... And It Already Has" (published Oct 31, 2025), Martin Armstrong said, in his own words describing a warning he gave EU officials, that he "seriously doubt[s] that the EU is going to be able to survive past 2030." The prediction window does not close until December 31, 2030, and today is July 14, 2026, so the EU's survival past that date cannot yet be assessed. No verdict is possible until the deadline passes. | ◷ Pendingpending-long-horizon-2030 | Dialogue Works - This Is How World War III Starts... And It Already Has (Oct 2025) |
| Q1 2026 (by Mar 31, 2026) | On the Triangle Investor YouTube interview (Dec 15, 2025), Martin Armstrong said in his own words that he warned Washington NATO was going to stage a false flag, expected during the first quarter of 2026, to try to invoke Article 5 and drag the United States into war. No NATO-staged false flag incident occurred and Article 5 was not invoked during Q1 2026 or at any point through mid-July 2026. The only 2026 Article 5 chatter found was Trump's unrelated March/Truth Social suggestion to invoke it over the US southern border, plus repeated warnings from Polish and Ukrainian officials about a possible Russian (not NATO) false flag against a NATO state — the opposite direction from Armstrong's claim. | ✖ Missdeadline passed, verified negative via live search | Triangle Investor - Europe Will Ban Gold & Bitcoin Next + USA Leaving NATO! Martin Armstrong (Dec 2025) |
| Dec 31, 2026 | Armstrong forecast the Iran war would last through the rest of 2026 and could push US gasoline prices as high as $9/gallon amid an unfolding sovereign debt crisis. On May 9, 2026, Armstrong told USAWatchdog's Greg Hunter the Iran war "will last the rest of 2026" and gasoline "could hit $9 a gallon." As of July 14, 2026 the US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed (fighting resumed July 8-9) but the AAA national gas average is $3.86/gallon, well short of $9, with the year-end deadline still open. | ◷ Pending | USAWatchdog.com - "Iran Bombs UAE to Trigger Financial Meltdown - Martin Armstrong" (Greg Hunter interview, May 9, 2026) |
| Jun 27, 2026 - 2027 | Armstrong (Armstrong Economics) said in a June 27, 2026 USAWatchdog interview: "There is going to be no peace deal in Iran... for the rest of this year going into 2027," citing conflicting Trump/Netanyahu incentives. The brief US-Iran ceasefire (Islamabad Memorandum, signed June 19) collapsed by July 8, 2026, when Trump declared it over; active strikes resumed, with CNN and Al Jazeera reporting US strikes on 80-140+ Iranian targets July 7-13 and Iran's IRGC closing the Strait of Hormuz after tanker attacks. As of July 14, 2026 there is no peace deal, tracking consistent with Armstrong's call, but the stated window runs through 2027 so the verdict is not yet final. | ◷ Pending | USAWatchdog (Armstrong Economics interview) |
| post-June 2026 | "WW3 After June - China Will Invade Taiwan" — interview claiming Armstrong's war-cycle model points to China, not Russia, as the WWIII flashpoint, with Taiwan invasion risk escalating after June 2026. As of July 14, 2026, no Chinese invasion of Taiwan has occurred; US think-tank and press assessments (AEI, CNN, ASPI) describe Beijing pursuing coercion short of invasion, with analysts judging an amphibious assault unlikely before year-end. Window (post-June 2026, with Armstrong elsewhere flagging August as the "real aggressive timeline") remains open. | ◷ Pending | Armstrong Economics (public blog, "Interview: WW3 After June- China Will Invade Taiwan," posted Jun 6, 2026, byline Martin Armstrong) |
| April 2026 | In a Jan 5, 2026 CapitalCosm interview ("SILVER Buyers! Prepare for April"), Armstrong said in his own words, "I'm more concerned about geopolitical events... expanding around April. You got gold and silver rising" — forecasting a war-risk escalation around April 2026 that would push gold and silver higher. Geopolitical risk did expand into April: the Iran war (escalating since late Feb 2026) climaxed with a U.S.-brokered ceasefire and Iran's 10-point plan announced April 7-8, 2026 (Al Jazeera, CNN, Britannica, Wikipedia "2026 Iran war ceasefire"). Gold traded above $4,800/oz and silver jumped nearly 7% to about $77/oz on April 8 as the news broke, with silver climbing further to roughly $81/oz by April 17 before easing back to ~$74 by month-end (StatMuse/Fortune data). | ✔ Hit | CapitalCosm - SILVER Buyers! Prepare for April (Jan 2026) |
| 2032 | On CapitalCosm's Jan 5, 2026 interview, responding directly to a viewer's question about when international relations between "major players i.e. US and China and to some extent Russia" would normalize, Martin Armstrong said: "so I don't see that any normalization before 2032 at at best." As of July 2026, no normalization has occurred: US-China relations only partially stabilized via late-2025 trade agreements while tensions persist over Taiwan, and China-Russia military/economic ties have deepened amid the Ukraine war. The 2032 window remains open. | ◷ PendingTIMESTAMP CORRECTION NEEDED: candidate cites [67:24] bu... | CapitalCosm - SILVER Buyers! Prepare for April (Jan 2026) |
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Rules this tracker follows, in full:
Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model (ECM) — the engine behind most calls on this page — runs on an 8.6-year wave. Why 8.6? He tallied 26 financial panics between 1683 and 1907, divided 224 years by 26, and got 8.6 — then noticed 8.6 years is 3,141 days: pi × 1000. Hence the nickname, and this site’s name.
Believers point to the dated hits in the table above. Critics note the misses in the same table, and Cornell economist Karel Mertens has called the cycle’s fit to past recessions coincidental — "comparable to numerology." This site doesn’t referee the theory; it scores the dated calls the model produces. The table is the argument.
Not to be confused with: the Bitcoin "Pi Cycle Top" indicator — a crypto moving-average crossover tool that shares the name and nothing else.
It’s genuinely mixed, which is why a ledger is useful. His reported early calls (1987, the 1989 Nikkei, February 2007) built the legend; his dated public calls since 2008 include several documented misses (the 2009 Dow-4,000 target, the October 1, 2015 "Big Bang"). Filter the table above and read the sources — that’s the point of this site.
An American economic forecaster, developer of the Economic Confidence Model (a 51.6-year cycle theory), and founder of Armstrong Economics. He was also convicted in the Princeton Economics case — he pleaded guilty to conspiracy and spent roughly 11 years in custody (contempt plus sentence) before release in 2011. His following remained loyal through it; the 2014 documentary The Forecaster tells his side.
No. Independent, unaffiliated, and built only from public sources. Nothing here is financial advice.